Steve Palmer's Abu Dhabi Championship final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 7am Sunday

Best bets

Tommy Fleetwood to win twoball (4-7), Matt Wallace to win twoball (8-11), Victor Perez to win twoball (4-6)
1pt treble Betfair, Power

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Story so far

Tyrrell Hatton started day three of the Abu Dhabi Championship five shots ahead, but ended it one shot behind, with ante-post favourite Rory McIlroy reclaiming top spot on the leaderboard.

The two Ryder Cup colleagues have spent the week exchanging the lead, with McIlroy setting the day-one pace at eight under par, before Hatton pushed on to 12 under par to end day two well in front. A Thursday mist delay meant round two needed completing on Saturday morning - and Hatton dropped a shot but stayed ahead - then a 67 from McIlroy meant he grabbed pole position going into Sunday.

McIlroy, 6-1 pre-tournament market leader, is a stand-out evens with Coral and Ladbrokes with 18 holes to play. Hatton, a 14-1 chance at the start of the week, is a general 9-4, while Tommy Fleetwood, alone in third place a further shot off the pace, is 9-2.

Justin Thomas, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Shane Lowry and Martin Kaymer were among those to miss the halfway cut.

Leaderboard
-13 Rory McIlroy
-12 Tyrrell Hatton
-11 Tommy Fleetwood
-10 David Lipsky, Marc Warren
-9 Rafa Cabrera-Bello

Best prices
Evens R McIlroy, 9-4 T Hatton, 9-2 T Fleetwood, 28 D Lipsky, 33 M Warren, 40 R Cabrera-Bello, 150 bar

Final-round preview

If Rory McIlroy finally lays the Ghost of Abu Dhabi to rest this week, he will probably look back on the tenth hole of round three as the decisive moment.

McIlroy, who has finished runner-up four times in this tournament, as well as third three times, has suffered enormous misfortune at Abu Dhabi Golf Club through the years. Lady Luck was smiling on the Northern Irishman in the middle of round three, though, as his pitch from the rough at the tenth bounded towards the hole.

Had his ball - fired from 73 yards - missed the flagstick, it would have rolled off the back of the green and down a little hill, leaving a tough up-and-down for par. Instead, it hit the flagstick and nestled into the cup - a potential bogey becoming an eagle.

McIlroy putted superbly in round one, struggled in the wind in round two, then did enough in less breezy Saturday conditions to poke his nose in front. With similar weather expected for Sunday - clear with moderate breezes - the leader has the chance to repeat his Saturday effort and post a competitive 72-hole total.

McIlroy, though, could not have asked for two tougher opponents as he bids to claim a first Abu Dhabi crown. Tyrrell Hatton will have been fuming with the way he three-putted the 18th green in round three, but the Englishman's temperament is much improved and he was able to see the bigger picture when interviewed afterwards - one shot back over 18 holes is an excellent winning chance.

Hatton got to 12 under par after 28 holes of this event - and remains on that score after 54 - but, as he explained to Sky Sports, nothing went his way on Saturday. Aside from a long birdie putt at the 17th hole in round three, he has been luckless on the greens, and he has not done much wrong. The man himself expects better fortune on Sunday - and rightly so.

Hatton, champion at Bay Hill and Wentworth last year, will relish this final-round assignment, while Tommy Fleetwood, a two-time Abu Dhabi champion, will also feel he can overtake McIlroy and complete a hat-trick of titles on this track.

Fleetwood has made a fantastic comeback, having been three over par through nine holes of the tournament, missing some tiddlers and staring at a missed cut until rallying.

Sunday is a significant one for McIlroy and Fleetwood, who, by their standards, are on long losing streaks. Both men last lifted a trophy in November, 2019 - McIlroy in the HSBC Champions and Fleetwood in the Nedbank Challenge.

Hatton is the one in the leading trio who has recent winning experience - he also won in November, 2019 (Turkish Airlines Open), but has followed up with his March Bay Hill triumph and a four-shot October romp in the BMW PGA Championship.

Hatton, Racing Post Sport's ante-post recommendation at 12-1, arguably remains the best value option at a general 9-4 given his stellar 2020. He has a serious advantage over his two rivals in terms of putting ability, so can edge the contest if he can compete with McIlroy and Fleetwood from tee to green.

Punters seeking further investments are pointed towards a twoballs favourites treble for round four. Fleetwood can outclass Marc Warren in the penultimate match, while Matt Wallace, who has linked up with ace caddie Gareth Lord in the close-season, should outgun Mikko Korhonen in their 7.45am (UK and Ireland) meeting. Victor Perez, who closed with a 63 in last year's Abu Dhabi Championship, can outscore Fabrizio Zanotti in the 7.35am match.

The final twoball of McIlroy and Hatton is scheduled to tee off at 8.45am UK and Ireland time.

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