Scott Jamieson and Brandon Stone set for Sunday duel at Leopard Creek

Sky Sports Golf, 9.30am Sunday

Story so far
Scott Jamieson started the Alfred Dunhill Championship as a 100-1 outsider, but the Scot leads going into the final round and is no bigger than 23-10 for victory.

Jamieson has won once on the European Tour, but that was in a weather-shortened 36-hole event. The 2012 Nelson Mandela Championship – at which he won a three-man playoff – is the only tournament where he has been victorious.

The Mandela success was in Durban and Jamieson has a strong record in South Africa. He missed the cut by six shots in the South African Open last week, though, and dropped no post-summer hints that he was close to becoming a title contender again.

David Lipsky, who also has just one European Tour honour in his locker, is alone in second place. Lipsky won the 2014 European Masters in a playoff. Brandon Stone and Zander Lombard are tied for third place at Leopard Creek and will lead the South African challenge into Sunday.

Leaderboard
-11 Scott Jamieson
-10 David Lipsky
-8 Zander Lombard, Brandon Stone
-7 Pablo Larrazabal, Marc Warren, David Drysdale, Raphael Jacquelin
-6 Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Niklas Lemke, Louis Oosthuizen
-5 Romain Langasque, Kim Koivu, Sean Crocker, Ben Evans, Adilson da Silva, Dylan Frittelli, Oliver Wilson

Best prices
23-10 S Jamieson, 4 D Lipsky, B Stone, 11 Z Lombard, 14 L Oosthuizen, 25 P Larrazabal, M Warren, 28 D Drysdale, 33 R Jacquelin, D Frittelli, 50 bar

Final-day advice
Scott Jamieson has never won a 72-hole tournament – on the Challenge Tour or the European Tour – and there is clearly much golf to be played before the Scot can be crowned the new king of Leopard Creek.

Jamieson typically finds at least one player too good for him – as has happened twice in South Africa with runner-up efforts in the Volvo Golf Champions and the Nedbank Challenge. The Glaswegian, one of the nicest guys on the circuit, seems to lack the killer instinct of some others around him.

David Lipsky is a similar character – the extremely pleasant Californian gets nervous near the finishing line and does not have a mantelpiece straining under silverware. He is also painfully slow over many shots, which allows more time for negative thoughts to develop.

It is not difficult to imagine both members of the final twoball getting off to a slow start in round four. They both arrived at Leopard Creek in miserable form and will be surprised to have got into contention.

The leading South Africans – Zander Lombard and Brandon Stone – will enjoy the lion's share of support from the galleries. Lombard often goes from the sublime to the ridiculous and may still be too mentally brittle to get over the line in front in a prestigious co-sanctioned gathering in his homeland.

The biggest threat to Jamieson is probably Stone, who missed several makeable putts in round three and is clearly swinging well enough to overcome a three-shot deficit. The cocksure local man, who won this tournament the last time it was staged, is in position to retain the trophy. He closed with a 67 to win by seven shots two years ago.

The leaderboard is tight just behind Stone and the event is wide-open if Jamieson treads Sunday water. Louis Oosthuizen, Romain Langasque, Dylan Frittelli and Sean Crocker all seem likely to make a final-round charge from deeper on the board. This quartet have little margin for error, though, and over the closing holes this tournament could turn into a duel between Jamieson and Stone.

Jamieson is the most likely winner, but only just, and hopes are high that Racing Post Sport ante-post headline selection Stone can reel in the Scot. Stone loves this layout and gained extra self-belief with a closing 66 for seventh place in the SA Open last Sunday.

The recommended cover-shot for Stone backers wanting one is Jamieson, but punters yet to get involved should be sniffing around the 4-1 Stone, who should be right in the thick of things on the back-nine given a more positive day on the greens.

The Jamieson-Stone dual forecast is an attractive 11-2 chance with Sky Bet. The final twoball of Jamieson and Lipsky is scheduled on the tee at 9.59am UK and Ireland time. A hot, sunny, calm day is forecast.

Outright recommendation
S Jamieson & B Stone dual forecast
1pt 11-2 Sky Bet

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