Steve Palmer's Phoenix Open final-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Jon Rahm to win 5.45pm threeball
2pts 21-20 general

Rory McIlroy top Irishman
2pts 21-20 Boylesports

Tom Kim to win 3.55pm threeball
2pts Evens general

Rory McIlroy to win 4.06pm threeball
2pts 4-6 bet365, Hills

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Story so far

The Super Bowl takes place in Arizona on Sunday night, but the sporting prelude is a fascinating Phoenix Open in the same state, as Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm headline a TPC Scottsdale shootout.

Scheffler, the defending Phoenix Open champion, leads by two shots with 18 holes to play. The ante-post 14-1 chance has shortened to a shade of odds-against. Scheffler will regain world-number-one status if he wins and Rory McIlroy finishes worse than solo third.

Rahm, tied for second place with Nick Taylor, also has hope of becoming world number one again. Victory, with McIlroy finishing worse than a three-way tie for second, would elevate the Spaniard to where he feels he belongs. McIlroy is tied 28th after three rounds, ten shots behind Scheffler.

Rahm, who touched 9-1 on Monday, is a best-price 3-1 for a first Phoenix Open triumph. He lives in Scottsdale and is hunting a home-city success which would mean three wins in his last four PGA Tour starts. The final threeball of Scheffler, Rahm and Taylor is scheduled off at 5.45pm UK and Ireland time – set to finish about 45 minutes before the Super Bowl unless a playoff is required. A sunny day with light breezes is forecast.

Leaderboard
-13 Scottie Scheffler
-11 Nick Taylor, Jon Rahm
-10 Jordan Spieth, Adam Hadwin
-9 Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Xander Schauffele

Best prices
23-20 S Scheffler, 3 J Rahm, 14 J Spieth, 18 N Taylor, 20 X Schauffele, 25 A Hadwin, S Im, 33 T Hatton, J Day, 35 R Fowler, 40 bar

Final-round preview

Never mind the gridiron, the PGA Tour golf is beautifully poised with 18 holes to play at the noisy, ever-exciting TPC Scottsdale, where the closing stretch is up there with Sawgrass in terms of volatility and almost certain drama.

The closing six holes provide compelling viewing – the tough 14th sandwiched between two par-fives, then the iconic par-three 16th stadium hole, followed by the driveable par-four 17th. Anything from a birdie to a double-bogey can go on the card at the 18th – a perfect drive is required – and this tournament will probably come down to who holds their nerve over the final few holes.

Lady luck was on Jon Rahm's side during round two, but she switched allegiances to Scottie Scheffler in round three, and the Texas-based slugger was so relieved to see his drive at the 17th pull up on the edge of the greenside water hazard.

Had Scheffler's ball found the drink, he would probably not be taking a lead into Sunday, but a birdie at the 17th gave him a two-shot cushion. Will that be enough for the Masters champion to repel the chasing pack on Sunday?

A best-price 23-20 Scheffler can be resisted. He had the winning habit in the first half of last year, winning the Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the WGC-Match Play and the Masters, but a losing habit has developed since, with great chances squandered and a series of near-misses, often due to poor short-range putting.

If another tight finish unfolds – in this most intense of arenas – will those recent setbacks come back to haunt Scheffler? Since slipping on the Green Jacket, he has finished second at Colonial, second in the US Open, third in the BMW Championship, second in the Tour Championship, third at Mayakoba and second in the Hero World Challenge, returning to his old bridesmaid role.

Scheffler hit a terrible approach shot on the final hole of the Hero World Challenge in December when in with a fantastic chance of success, so there have been signs that this losing streak has been getting to him. His driving was loose in round three, so the leader will certainly need to tighten up off the tee if he is to convert this opportunity.

Since Scheffler's last victory, Rahm has won five times, building confidence at the same time as Scheffler was losing his. Rahm has a solid record at TPC Scottsdale and has never teed up at his home track with more self-belief than he is carrying this week, having not finished outside the top eight in his last eight tournaments.

Rahm was three under par for the closing six holes - which will probably have such an influence on this event – as he finished round three with a gutsy par putt. The moment of the tournament was provided by Rahm at the 16th – a long birdie putt which sent the assembled masses into a frenzy – and this feels like the week when the former Arizona State college star finally enjoys Phoenix Open glory.

Of course, this is not a two-runner race. Jordan Spieth produced one of the shots of the season to deliver a birdie at the 17th in round three and stay in touch, Adam Hadwin battled manfully alongside Scheffler and Rahm in the final threeball to retain a winning chance, while a hugely controversial free drop for Xander Schauffele on the 13th hole meant he finished only four shots behind.

Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament staking plan consisted of Rahm at 8-1 and Hadwin at 125-1, so the chances of each-way returns are high. Scheffler and Spieth may appeal as cover shots to punters with significant investments in Rahm and Hadwin, but anyone getting involved for the first time at this stage is pointed towards the 3-1 Rahm. The Scottsdale resident has held his nerve at key moments this week and seems ready to deliver his fifth victory in his last eight starts.

Rahm first, Scheffler second, Hadwin third, Spieth fourth, Schauffele fifth would be the prediction. The American gambling public may be distracted by gridiron, but the golf looks certain to serve up a thriller.

Rahm can be fancied to win the final threeball – against Scheffler and Nick Taylor. And the youngster Rahm was guiding around TPC Scottsdale in practice rounds last weekend – Tom Kim – is another appealing threeballs option against Billy Horschel and James Hahn. Kim says he loves both the course and the atmosphere at this event.

McIlroy will be fully aware of the pressure his world-number-one status is under. Even though his winning chance has gone, expect a fully focused performance from a man who would love to leave Phoenix as world number one. He may need help from Spieth or somebody else, but expect McIlroy to keep his side of the bargain by advancing his leaderboard position.

McIlroy can be backed for top Irishman – he starts round four with a two-shot deficit on Seamus Power – and for threeball success against Matt Kuchar and Jason Dufner.

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