Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational final-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Max Homa without Jon Rahm
2pts Evens Coral, Ladbrokes

Patrick Cantlay to win 5.55pm threeball
2pts 20-21 bet365

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Story so far

Scottie Scheffler won the Phoenix Open last week despite some wild driving and Jon Rahm may be about to do likewise in the Genesis Invitational. Rahm hooked a number of drives during round three at Riviera Country Club on Saturday, but still managed to go three shots clear.

A long birdie putt at the 18th hole gave Rahm some breathing space as he bids to win his fifth tournament in nine starts, following success in the Spanish Open, DP World Tour Championship, Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express.

Rahm is a best-price 4-11 to convert his advantage into victory. It would be the fifth time he has won a PGA Tour title in California. The Spaniard will regain world number one status if he wins the Genesis and Scheffler fails to finish solo second. Scheffler is tied 15th heading into the final round, ten shots behind Rahm.

Max Homa is alone in second place, with Keith Mitchell in third spot, and that duo will join Rahm in the final threeball for the second day running, teeing off at 6.06pm UK and Ireland time.

Leaderboard
-15 Jon Rahm
-12 Max Homa
-11 Keith Mitchell
-10 Patrick Cantlay
-9 Gary Woodland

Best prices
4-11 J Rahm, 9-2 M Homa, 16 P Cantlay, 20 K Mitchell, 125 G Woodland, 250 bar

Final-round preview

Sunny, calm conditions are forecast for the final round of the Genesis Invitational and the Riviera galleries could be treated to a thrilling duel between Jon Rahm and Max Homa.

Rahm has obviously given himself the edge with some sparkling iron-shots and a strong putting display in round three, but Homa seems unlikely to go down without a fight in his home state. The local lad will have the crowd on his side and the Californian hordes could have a major role to play in the outcome.

Rahm has a habit of getting extremely tetchy with spectators. He was riled on occasions in Phoenix last week and there have again been fits of pique at Riviera this week. If Homa can reduce the deficit early, sparking his fans into a frenzy, then it is not difficult to imagine Rahm getting his knickers in a twist.

The temperamental Spaniard may still have enough shots in hand to deal with any upset, but there is no urge to pile into the favourite at no bigger than 4-11. Homa putts the Riviera greens better than anyone and his flat-stick has been purring for most of this week. Rahm's chief pursuer definitely has the dancefloor class to make a strong fist of this.

Keith Mitchell, a 31-year-old with only one PGA Tour title to his name, missed a short par putt on the final hole of round three, a last-gasp blunder which has given the tournament the feel of a Rahm versus Homa showdown. Patrick Cantlay, who like Rahm and Homa has a superb record in California, can be expected to finish with a flourish, but a five-shot deficit on Rahm requires something extremely special, and Cantlay's putter has been cool.

Homa was Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament headline selection at 22-1 and there is clearly a healthy potential for an each-way return. The 9-2 Homa appeals more than the 4-11 Rahm at this stage, so no further outright interest is advised. Homa loves playing the role of hunter.

Strong Sundays have been a feature of all Homa's six PGA Tour victories – 67, 66, 65, 68, 68 and 66. In the Farmers Insurance Open last month, he started the final round with a five-shot deficit, but ended up winning by two. Homa was three shots behind Rahm going into that Farmers final round, but finished it five shots ahead of him.

Homa seems a more than fair price at evens in the 'without Rahm' market, while 2021 FedEx Cup champion Cantlay appeals as the best threeballs wager, with Gary Woodland and Adam Svensson as company in the penultimate group.

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