Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Phoenix Open

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When to bet on the Phoenix Open

By 2.15pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Phoenix Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2.15pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Phoenix Open predictions

Sam Burns
4pts each-way 22-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Phoenix Open preview

Scottie Scheffler tied for ninth place in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in California last week, making a decent start to his 2025 campaign, and the world number one has moved on to the Phoenix Open as an emphatic market leader.

Scheffler teed up in Phoenix 12 months ago looking to win the title for a third consecutive year, but some poor putting meant he could manage only a share of third place. Rounds of 68, 66, 66, 66 left him three shots shy of Nick Taylor.

With full course form of MC-7-1-1-3, there is no doubt TPC Scottsdale, a venue where champions typically have to pound greens in regulation, extremely suits Scheffler. He is obviously the most likely winner this week, but punters have to ask themselves whether a best price of just 3-1 is worth taking.

Scheffler's approach-play statistics were typically excellent on his return to action, but a few shots were out of character. He shanked an iron on Friday, as well as pulling a drive at Pebble's 18th hole on to the beach. Loose driving and clumsy chipping were a feature of his first appearance since he had hand surgery at the end of December.

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am was a Signature Event containing all of the elite, while only a handful of superstars are teeing up in Phoenix. If a rusty Scheffler can finish ninth at Pebble, he can be expected to contend in Phoenix, but there is no urge to take the short odds in just his second outing of the year.

Justin Thomas endured another nightmare on the greens last week, slumping to a share of 48th place on Sunday, and the positive signs in his putting stroke at The American Express were quickly forgotten. It is difficult to imagine Thomas putting well in front of the enormous Phoenix hordes.

Hideki Matsuyama, like Scheffler, is a two-time Phoenix Open champion. Matsuyama was sensational when winning The Sentry with a record score at the start of the year, but regressive form figures of 1-16-32-48 and some wild shots in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am temper enthusiasm for the Japanese ace.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Sam Burns 22-1

The only player in the 132-man Phoenix line-up who makes any betting appeal is Sam Burns, who may prove to be the one who denies Scheffler a third Scottsdale triumph.

Scheffler seems likely to be in the thick of things going down the back nine on Sunday – and the Masters champion has the ability to intimidate most players – but Burns would not be ruffled by a meeting with the sport's dominant force. They are close friends and regular practice partners, their families often mix, and Burns is comfortable with the challenge of golfing with Scheffler.

Burns beat Scheffler in a playoff for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial, then repeated the dose in the semi-finals of the 2023 WGC-Match Play Championship. If these two are squaring off for the title in Phoenix on Sunday, Scheffler will be fully aware of the threat posed by his pal.

That WGC was the last time Burns has won on the PGA Tour. It was his fifth Tour title and he made his Ryder Cup debut a few months later. The Louisiana lad strongly threatened a sixth success at the end of last year, finishing fifth in the St Jude Championship, second in the BMW Championship and 12th in the Tour Championship.

This year, Burns started 2025 with eighth place in The Sentry, then was 29th in The American Express, before 22nd place at Pebble Beach on Sunday, carrying an ice-cold putter on the poa annua greens. If the 28-year-old holes his fair share on more suitable putting surfaces this week, expect him to threaten the trophy.

Burns has finished sixth and third in the last two Phoenix Opens, and will fancy his chances of entertaining the huge crowds on Super Bowl Sunday again.

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Course guide for the Phoenix Open

• Course Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona
• Prize money $9.2m ($1.584m to the winner)
• Length 7,261 yards
• Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 132 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Hideki Matsuyama (5), Wyndham Clark (7), Justin Thomas (15), Robert MacIntyre (17)
• Course records - 72 holes 256 Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013) 18 holes 60 Grant Waite (1996), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2005 and 2013), Nick Taylor (2024)
• Course winners taking part Hideki Matsuyama (twice), Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (twice), Nick Taylor
• When to bet By 2.15pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2.15pm on Thursday
• Time difference Arizona is seven hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Pebble Beach Pro-Am 1 R McIlroy (12-1), 2 S Lowry (60-1), T3 L Glover (200-1), J Rose (150-1), T5 R Henley (60-1), C Davis (100-1), T7 T Kim (60-1), S Straka (55-1)
• Course type Desert
• Course overview The course has been used for this event since 1987. A score in the high-teens under par is usually needed for victory. The galleries are a test for the competitors, with more than 200,000 fans normally crammed into the course for the Friday and Saturday. This was a Signature Event in 2023, with a stellar field
• Story of last year Nick Taylor defeated Charley Hoffman in a playoff, thwarting Scottie Scheffler's hat-trick bid
• Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with light breezes throughout
• Type of player suited to the challenge Scottsdale is traditionally conquered by players who churn out greens in regulation for four days
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Phoenix Open key stat

Seven of the last nine Phoenix Open champions were inside the top 20 of the world rankings at the time of their victory

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.