Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Texas Open on the PGA Tour

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When to bet on the Texas Open

By 1pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Texas Open

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1.15pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Texas Open predictions

Akshay Bhatia
3pts each-way 22-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Corey Conners
3pts each-way 16-1 bet365

Maverick McNealy
2pts each-way 40-1 general

Sam Stevens
1.5pts each-way 45-1 Hills

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Steve Palmer's Texas Open preview

Ludvig Aberg used to go to college in Texas and is teeing up in the Texas Open for the third time this week, looking to build on course form figures of MC-14, but the favourite may be letting his mind wander forward to next week's Masters. Aberg finished runner-up at Augusta last year and will head into the first Major of the season as one of the favourites.

Such is the class of Aberg that he is a tempting option in a weak Texas Open, but putting is his weakness and the large, undulating dancefloors of the Oaks Course will apply pressure to that department of his game this week.

Jordan Spieth, who won this event in 2021 and relishes competition in his home state, is also worth considering after showing signs of life lately. The three-time Major champion may need more time to get his act together in the wake of wrist surgery, though, and can be left out at the odds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Akshay Bhatia 22-1

Defending champion Akshay Bhatia appears to have a fantastic chance of retaining his title at the Oaks Course this week. The gifted left-hander carded a 20-under-par 72-hole total last year, dislocating his left shoulder celebrating a birdie on the 72nd hole which earned him a playoff spot.

Bhatia got his shoulder strapped up and went on to win the playoff in gutsy fashion, securing a second PGA Tour title. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 and has swaggered up the world rankings since.

The 23-year-old finished third in the Players Championship last time out. He has been peppering pins all season and putting superbly. The large putting surfaces of this week's layout are ideal for Bhatia to show off his touch. Seven of the last ten Texas Open winners have ranked inside the top five of the putting statistics.

Bhatia can complete a hat-trick of PGA Tour titles on Sunday before heading to Augusta next week for his a second Masters appearance.

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Next best bet

Corey Conners 16-1

Two-time Oaks Course champion Corey Conners won the Texas Open in 2019 and 2023, so both his victories came after the 2018 redesign. There was no Texas Open in 2020 due to Covid, so Conners has won two of the last five editions.

Conners, Bhatia and Denny McCarthy are the 72-hole course-record holders, with Conners reaching 20 under par in 2019. The Canadian was world number 473 when he made his Texas Open debut in 2018 and he finished 26th, showing an immediate liking to the layout. His full course form figures are 26-1-14-35-1 and he topped the greens-in-regulation statistics for both his wins.

Conners has gained strokes in all departments this season, but the stat which will thrill him most is the fact he is 60th in the putting stats. That is a superb ranking for Conners, who has built a career on relentless accuracy and churning out greens in regulation. His putting has improved significantly this term and he seems better equipped than ever to handle the Oaks assignment.

March form figures of 3-6-8 came at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and the Valspar – Florida events which will not have taken much out of the Florida-based star – and he seems primed to threaten a Texas Open hat-trick this week.

Other selections

Maverick McNealy 40-1
Sam Stevens 45-1

The RSM Classic in November provided an overdue PGA Tour breakthrough for Maverick McNealy and the former world number one amateur nearly delivered a quick follow-up success in February at the Genesis Invitational, where he was pipped by a fast-finishing Aberg.

That runner-up effort in a Signature Event was followed by missed cuts at Bay Hill and Sawgrass, but McNealy has never played well at Bay Hill and Sawgrass is a course of fine margins where scorecards can be quickly destroyed. Last week's 32nd place in the Houston Open, where he closed with rounds of 67, 68, 67 saw McNealy swinging well again.

McNealy made the cut in both his previous Texas Opens when a Tour maiden well down the world rankings. He tees off this week as world number 16 and a Tour champion.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Sam Stevens, a Tour maiden who needs to win this event to earn a Masters debut. He was runner-up on his Texas Open debut in 2023 when ranked 278th in the world, then finished 14th in last year's event. This week he tees off as world number 77.

Stevens, born in Texas, has a rock-solid record in his home state, missing only one cut on the PGA Tour there, and 18th place in Houston last week, with closing rounds of 65, 69, 65, was an ideal warm-up. He was runner-up in the Farmers Insurance Open in January and can threaten a breakthrough again this week.

Recommended

4/5

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Course guide for the Texas Open

• Course Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas
• Prize money $9.5m ($1.71m to the winner)
• Length 7,438 yards
• Par 72 - four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes 
• Field 150 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Ludvig Aberg (5), Hideki Matsuyama (6), Tommy Fleetwood (11), Keegan Bradley (14), Patrick Cantlay (15)
• Course records - 72 holes 268 Corey Conners (2019), Akshay Bhatia (2024), Denny McCarthy (2024) 18 holes 62 Trey Mullinax (2018)
• Course winners taking part Martin Laird, Jimmy Walker, Charley Hoffman, Corey Conners (twice), Jordan Spieth, Akshay Bhatia
• When to bet By 1pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1.15pm on Thursday
• Time difference Texas is six hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Houston Open 1 Min Woo Lee (33-1), T2 G Woodland (125-1), S Scheffler (7-2), 4 S Valimaki (400-1), T5 W Clark (35-1), T Pendrith (40-1), R McIlroy (13-2), A Tosti (225-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview The Greg Norman-designed Oaks Course has been used since 2010. A Korn Ferry Tour event (TPC San Antonio Championship) was staged at the Oaks in July, 2020. Course changes before the 2018 edition made the set-up more generous, but accurate drivers have continued to thrive along the tree-lined fairways. The greens are large and undulating. There was no 2020 event due to the Covid pandemic
• Story of last year Akshay Bhatia beat Denny McCarthy in a thrilling playoff after both men finished nine shots ahead of the rest
• Weather forecast Warm, clear and calm for three days, before a cooler and windier Sunday
• Type of player suited to the challenge Andrew Landry, Corey Conners (twice) and JJ Spaun have won this title in recent years with neat and tidy golf, but strong putting seems essential on these large, sloping greens
• Key attribute Touch/putting

Steve Palmer's Texas Open key stat

Seven of the last ten winners have ranked inside the top five of the putting stats

Read more ...

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