Racing Post's Mexico Open predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet

1pm Thursday

Where to watch the Mexico Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1.45pm on Thursday

Ian Wilkerson's Mexico Open predictions

Patrick Rodgers
2pts each-way 33-1 Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power

Gary Woodland
1.5pts each-way 30-1 Hills

Ben Martin
1pt each-way 50-1 Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power

Robby Shelton
1pt each-way 66-1 Hills

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With the new designated events on the PGA Tour calendar ensuring a busy schedule for the game's leading lights, it is no surprise that many of golf's biggest names have given this week's Mexico Open a swerve.

The glaring exception is defending champion and Masters winner Jon Rahm, who ended an 11-month wait for a title with victory in Vallarta last year, so the fact he has claimed six titles since may suggest he can make a mockery of his short price this week.

But Rahm, last year's runner-up Tony Finau and Alex Noren are the only representatives from the world's top 50 so there is a chance for others to shine among an indifferent field.

Ian Wilkerson's top tip

Patrick Rodgers 33-1

One player who could make a big impression is Patrick Rodgers, who was tenth in Vallarta last year and can build on some good recent form.

Rodgers dragged himself out of an indifferent run by claiming fifth at the Texas Open when he was unable to build on opening rounds of 66 and 67.

He was third in Bermuda, 16th at the Houston Open and 10th at the RSM Classic when some of golf's bigger names were putting their feet up in the autumn, but he has also made his presence felt in posting top-20s in the higher profile Phoenix Open and at the RBC Heritage a fortnight ago.

Those results in strong fields should boost his confidence and, with two second-place finishes in his career, he can make a bold bid given his strength off the tee.

Next best bet

Gary Woodland 30-1

Gary Woodland has not tasted victory since he won the US Open in 2019, but there have been signs of life recently and this could be the week when it all comes together.

Woodland was 24th in this tournament last year, when a disappointing second-round 72 accompanied efforts of 67, 69 and 67, and he looks to have the right profile this week as he is ranked ninth in driving distance and 13th in strokes-gained off-the-tee.

His tee-to-green game is the 42nd best on tour, which comparatively this week is pretty good, so the right ingredients should be there and his 14th at the Masters has to be encouraging for a player who has been off the radar lately.

Woodland was subsequently 31st at the Heritage the following week and while it might be a while before he is once again considered a big threat in elite fields, he can make his mark in Mexico.

Other selections

Ben Martin 50-1

Robby Shelton 66-1

American Ben Martin missed the Mexico cut by two shots last year but he heads across the border in much better shape this time, so should not be dismissed purely on his previous course outing.

That showing came in a slump when he failed to build on second place at the Corales Puntacana, but he has rebuilt his form enough since the turn of the year to suggest he can be a factor in low-grade company.

This year, he has finished 13th at Pebble Beach, fifth at the Honda Classic, eighth at the Corales and tenth at the Texas Open, so he has been performing well in weaker tournaments.

Robby Shelton could provide a good interest at a decent price too.

He is ranked 40th in strokes-gained tee-to-green and some of his results have been solid this year.

A sixth spot at the American Express in January was a morale-booster and his 20th at Pebble Beach, 21st at the Honda and 15th in Texas could all have been better had he not started with disappointing rounds of 73.

Shelton won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and it is worth chancing that he can have a good Thursday and put himself in the picture.

Vidanta Vallarta course guide

Course Vidanta Vallarta (Greg Norman Course), Vallarta, Mexico
Prize money $7.7 m ($1.386m to the winner)
Length 7,436 yards
Par 71– four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
Field 144
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (1), Tony Finau (16), Alex Noren (50), Andrew Putnam (68), David Riley (69)
Course records - 72 holes 267 Jon Rahm (2022) 18 holes 63 Tony Finau, Brandon Wu (2022)

Course winner taking part Jon Rahm

When to bet By 1pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1.45pm on Thursday

Time difference Vallarta is six hours behind the UK & Ireland

Last week – Zurich Classic of New Orleans 1 N Hardy & D Riley (50-1), 2 A Hadwin & N Taylor (35-1), 3 W Clark & B Hossler (28-1), T4 X Schauffele & P Cantlay (3-1), T4 M NeSmith & T Moore (50-1), 6 K Mitchell & S Im (12-1),

Course type Parkland

Course overview This Greg Norman design opened in 2015 and hosted the tournament for the first time last year. It has generous fairways and large greens but undulations will have to be dealt with and deep bunkers avoided.

Story of last year Jon Rahm ended an 11-month wait for a tournament win by claiming a one-shot success over Tony Finau, Brandon Wu and Kurt Kitayama.

Weather forecast Expected to be clear with temperatures around 28C. Wind should be a factor in the first two rounds but it unlikely to be too fierce.

Type of player suited to the challenge Solid tee-to-green play was a key to success last year. Distance off the tee and solid irons to the right sections of the greens should help.

Key attribute Accuracy