Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the Genesis Invitational

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When to bet on the Genesis Invitational

By 5.30pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Genesis Invitational

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.30pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational predictions

Rory McIlroy
5pts each-way 7-1 Hills

Ludvig Aberg
3pts each-way 22-1 Hills

Taylor Pendrith
2pts each-way 35-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational preview

Scottie Scheffler moved menacingly into contention in Phoenix on Sunday, but missed a short birdie putt at the ninth hole before a back nine of 41 shots. He dropped to 25th place and ended the event 30th in the approach-play statistics.

Scheffler typically dominates that stat, so the world number one has started 2025 showing signs of vulnerability. His driving was loose at Pebble Beach on his return from hand surgery, while his chipping has been remarkably poor at both Pebble Beach and Scottsdale.

Torrey Pines, which takes over from the Riviera Country Club as the host venue for the Genesis Invitational following last month’s wildfires in Los Angeles, is not a regular port of call for Scheffler. He has Farmers Insurance Open form figures of MC-MC-20, so there is no urge to back to the favourite at the current odds. World number two Xander Schauffele is absent with a rib problem, while the rain falling at Torrey Pines has dented the Genesis hopes of the short-driving Collin Morikawa.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 7-1

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am was a triumph for Rory McIlroy, who produced a hugely disciplined performance, following a bogey-free Saturday 65 in tough conditions with a five-under-par closing nine to run away from a stellar field.

The controlled aggression of McIlroy at Pebble Beach bodes extremely well for the rest of 2025. There was a ruthlessness about the Northern Irishman, who played the par-five 18th hole in conservative fashion to seal a two-shot success. It was his first strokeplay victory in California, following his 2015 WGC-Match Play title in San Francisco.

Torrey Pines arguably suits McIlroy even better than Pebble Beach. This week's assignment is at a long, demanding layout where strong driving is more of a weapon. The course is set to play its full length due to pre-tournament rain, so the best drivers can dominate.

McIlroy started his year in the Dubai Desert Classic, shedding Christmas rust over the first two days before rounds of 69 and 66 rocketed him up to fourth place. His form figures at Torrey Pines are 5-3-16-7. The seventh place came in the 2021 US Open at a time when he was outside the world's top ten. This week, McIlroy returns as the world number three. The number two is out injured and the number one is looking vulnerable.

Rory's glory at Pebble Beach was built on magnificent driving and excellent putting. It was a rock-solid all-round performance. He closed 2024 by winning the DP World Tour Championship and has started 2025 looking a huge threat for every major golfing honour. Back-to-back Signature Event successes can lay the foundation for a wonderful campaign.

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Ludvig Aberg 22-1

Two of the sweetest swingers in the game can take centre stage this week. Like McIlroy, there is a seemingly effortless power about Ludvig Aberg, a ball-striking colossus who is extremely well suited to Torrey Pines. Aberg led the Farmers Insurance Open there after round one last month before falling ill, suffering with stomach flu over the final three days. He was hunched over at times and dropped from first place to 42nd.

The Swede attempted to play the Pebble Beach Pro-Am the following week, but was still ill, opening with a 77 at Spyglass Hill before withdrawing. Stomach flu typically takes a maximum of a fortnight to recover from and Aberg's dose started on January 24. He tees off on Thursday (February 13) ready to do himself justice again.

Aberg finished ninth on his Farmers debut last year, despite carrying an ice-cold putter as he saw the Torrey Pines greens for the first time. He knows them better on his third start and can provide the main threat to his Ryder Cup teammate McIlroy.

Other selection

Taylor Pendrith 35-1

Seventh place in the Farmers Insurance Open three weeks ago was another excellent Torrey Pines performance from power-packed Canadian Taylor Pendrith. His full Farmers form figures are 16-60-9-7 and he finished ninth last time out at Pebble Beach.

Pendrith won his maiden PGA Tour title in the Byron Nelson last May and 16 of his last 20 tournaments have yielded a top-25 finish. He has become relentlessly consistent and tees up this week at a dreamy venue. The rain falling at Torrey has just bolstered the chance of this immense driver making an impact.

Read more from Steve Palmer ... 

Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for LIV Golf Adelaide 

Steve Palmer's LIV Golf Adelaide first-round golf betting tips and predictions 

Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational first-round golf betting tips and predictions 

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Course guide for the Genesis Invitational

• Course Torrey Pines South, San Diego, California
• Prize money $20m ($4m to the winner)
• Length 7,765 yards
• Par 72 - four par-five holes; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 72 The cut Top 50 and ties (and anyone within ten shots of the lead) qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (3), Collin Morikawa (4), Hideki Matsuyama (5), Ludvig Aberg (6)
• Course records - 72 holes 278 Jon Rahm (2021 US Open) 18 holes 62 Tiger Woods (1999 Farmers Insurance Open)
• Course winners taking part Jason Day (twice), Justin Rose, Max Homa, Matthieu Pavon, Harris English
• When to bet By 5.30pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5.30pm on Thursday
• Time difference California is eight hours behind UK and Ireland
• Last week – Phoenix Open 1 T Detry (100-1), 2 D Berger (125-1), M Kim (250-1), T4 C Bezuidenhout (150-1), J Spieth (90-1), T6 J Thomas (12-1), W Chandler (500-1), R MacIntyre (50-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Torrey Pines South has hosted three rounds of the Farmers Insurance Open since 1968. The South, opened in 1957, was redesigned by Rees Jones in 2001 to make it tougher for the 2008 US Open, which was won by Tiger Woods. Jon Rahm won the US Open there in 2021. It is a severe test and showed its teeth in the Farmers Insurance Open last month. The Genesis Invitational is traditionally played at Riviera Country Club, but damage caused to that area by wildfires last month forced a late venue switch. The small greens on the South course are undulating and tricky
• The story of last year Hideki Matsuyama provided a masterclass in the final round at Riviera to win the Genesis by three shots, leaving Luke List and Will Zalatoris chasing his shadow
• Weather forecast Heavy pre-tournament rain looks set to soften Torrey Pines, with further showers expected on Thursday and Friday, before a sunny weekend. Temperatures should be in the teens throughout. Light to moderate breezes
• Type of player suited to the challenge Torrey Pines South looks set to play its full length, with rain-softened fairways making this a slog for short drivers. Power appears of great advantage
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational key stat

Seven of the last eight Farmers Insurance Open winners at Torrey Pines have ranked inside the top five for strokes gained on approach

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