BMW Championship predictions & golf betting tips

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By 2pm on Thursday

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Ian Wilkerson's BMW Championship predictions

Rory McIlroy
5pts 8-1 Paddy Power

Patrick Cantlay
1.5pts each-way 25-1 Paddy Power

Cameron Young
1pt each-way 28-1 Paddy Power

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Ian Wilkerson's BMW Championship preview

The race for the FedEx Cup is heating up and the field is reduced to 49 for this week's BMW Championship, all of whom will hope to be in the top 30 of the rankings come Sunday night so they can take their chance at next week's Tour Championship.

The second round of the playoffs will take place at Caves Valley Golf Club in Maryland, which last hosted this showdown when Patrick Cantlay won four years ago.

Keegan Bradley defends the trophy he won at Castle Pines in Colorado 12 months ago, but the USA Ryder Cup captain could have more on his mind this week as the six automatic team selection places will be locked in after this week, leaving a host of other players looking to impress and earn one of his six picks.

Rory McIlroy returns to action after missing the St Jude ChampionshipCredit: Getty Images

Ian Wilkerson's top tip

Rory McIlroy 8-1

It is all change for this year's Tour Championship as the starting-strokes system that was introduced in 2019 has been abandoned.

All 30 players are set to start on the same score next week, so there is no advantage to be had from a player's ranking in the FedEx Cup standings, which had big connotations for last week's FedEx St Jude Championship as second-placed Rory McIlroy decided to take the week off.

It was a blow to the PGA Tour not to have one of its stars at TPC Southwind, but the extra rest should have given the Masters champion a real boost and this week's examination at Caves Valley is much more his cup of tea anyway.

The Maryland track was mastered by those who gained shots from off the tee and on the greens when Cantlay beat Bryson DeChambeau in a six-hole playoff in 2021, and those have been real strengths of McIlroy's game this year.

He is ranked third in strokes-gained off the tee and fourth in putting, and will remember how he stormed out of the blocks with a 64 four years ago before a Friday 70 meant he had to settle for fourth spot.

This will be his first outing since he was seventh at The Open at Royal Portrush and his decision not to compete last week could be vindicated.

Fresher, he looks a better pick than rival Scottie Scheffler, who despite finishing third at Southwind, was often frustrated and struggled to find fairways with his customary regularity, and the best driver in the game can come back with a bang.

Patrick Cantlay has shown signs of returning to top formCredit: PGA TOUR

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Patrick Cantlay 25-1

Patrick Cantlay had a memorable week when he won this tournament four years ago, producing a putting performance for the ages.

He gained 14.58 shots on the greens over the course of four days, which was the highest figure recorded anywhere since the PGA Tour started compiling the statistics in 2004 and it was one of his finest hours.

He successfully defended his title at Wilmington Golf Club the following year, but that was his last victory anywhere as the bevy of trophies did not materialise. But while he has knocked on the door a few times, there were encouraging signs at Southwind last week, where he finished ninth.

That performance should have given him a lift and those positive feelings should be amplified by a return to Caves Valley.

There is also the extra motivation of giving Bradley a last-minute reminder that he is worthy of a Ryder Cup captain's pick, so this looks a decent opportunity for him to enhance his chances of playing at Bethpage Black next month.

Cameron Young won the Wyndham Championship at the start of the monthCredit: Getty Images

Other selection

Cameron Young 28-1

While Tommy Fleetwood was again frustrated at seeing another opportunity to win on the PGA Tour slip by at Southwind last week, Cameron Young has demonstrated just what a galvanising effect a triumph can have and he is worth an each-way poke this week.

Young stormed to victory at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago but any thoughts that a first tour title would allow him to ease up were quickly dispelled by another fine showing last week as he claimed fifth spot with a 64 that no-one in the 70-man field bettered.

Young's confidence should be sky high and while he did not play at Caves Valley four years ago, it could prove a decent fit for a player who is ranked the seventh best putter on tour and decent enough on the tee.

He is also a form horse who could continue to force his way into Bradley's thoughts so we can expect another bold show from the man from New York.

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