Northern Trust: PGA Tour match betting & threeball tips for Liberty National

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 12.30pm Thursday

Jon Rahm has finished no worse than 11th in his last five tournaments and the in-form Spanish star is likely to find Liberty National to his liking when he bids to start the FedEx Cup playoffs with a victory at the Northern Trust.

Liberty National, which overlooks Downtown Manhattan, is next to the Hudson River and as such is an exposed layout with a coastal feel. Rahm, who is a two-time Irish Open winner on links courses, excels in those conditions.

He has not won an individual PGA Tour event since January 2018 – he triumphed alongside Ryan Palmer in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans pairs event – but he is knocking on the door virtually every week and it will be a surprise if he is not in the mix on Sunday in New Jersey.

Strokes gained tee-to-green was a key statistic at the 2013 Northern Trust at Liberty National, won by Adam Scott. Rahm rates 13th in that field on the US Tour and it may be worth backing him in a match bet against Dustin Johnson.

Johnson is the world number two and typically likes playing in the New York-New Jersey area, but his form has been poor by his high standards since he finished second to Brooks Koepka at the US PGA Championship in May.

DJ is not in great nick, but his Ryder Cup colleague Patrick Reed has finished in the top 25 in each of his last five starts and closed with a superb 63 at the Wyndham Championship last week.

Reed needs a win if he is to force his way into the USA squad for the Presidents Cup and the man they call Captain America will be doing all he can to catch the eye of actual US captain Tiger Woods this week.

Reed missed the cut at Liberty National in 2013 but that came a week after he won his first title at the Wyndham and he showed a liking for the course when winning three and a half points at the 2017 Presidents Cup.

He is pitched in a match bet against Jason Day, who he may well do battle with at Royal Melbourne in December, and he should go lower than the Aussie, who missed the cut at the 3M Open and the Open Championship before finishing down the field at the WGC St Jude Invitational.

The FedEx Cup playoffs tend to create drama throughout the leaderboard on Sunday as players scramble to progress to the next event. There are 122 players in the field this week but only 70 will make it through to the BMW Championship before the top 30 in the points list contest the Tour Championship at East Lake.

Jordan Spieth and Matthew Wolff are 69th and 70th in the list and both at risk of missing out on the BMW if they fail to fire at Liberty National.

Spieth is having a terrible year despite showing signs of life recently. The putting stroke is back but his tee-to-green game is in woeful shape – he was the 13th worst in the field from tee to green at the Wyndham last week despite making the weekend – and there is little signs of immediate progress.

Wolff burst onto the scene recently in much the same way Spieth did a few years ago, winning the 3M and adding solid results at the John Deere, the WGC St Jude and the Wyndham.

• Northern Trust tournament tips

Despite the gulf in experience between the two players, the younger man is taken to finish ahead of the three-time Major champion this week.

Finally, first-round threeballs punters can consider backing Sepp Straka to shoot the lowest opening round when he tees off alongside Danny Willett and Scott Brown.

Each threeball is decided by the FedEx Cup standings, so there are unlikely to be any complete mismatches, with former Masters champion Willett the bookies favourite in this group.

The Englishman is playing well again but Straka has an impressive tee-to-green game which should hold the Austrian powerhouse in good stead by the Hudson and he ranks 13th in first-round scoring average which compares favourably to Willett’s 188th and out-of-form Brown’s 107th.

Recommendations
J Rahm to beat D Johnson
2pts 10-11 bet365
Bet on John Rahm with bet365 here

P Reed to beat J Day
2pts 5-6 bet365
Bet on Patrick Reed with bet365 here

M Wolff to beat J Spieth
2pts 5-6 RedZone

S Straka to win threeball
1pt 15-8 Betfair, Paddy Power
Bet on Sepp Straka with bet365 here

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