Magnificent Dustin Johnson dominating his rivals down Mexico way

Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Sunday

Story so far
Dustin Johnson extended his WGC-Mexico Championship lead from two shots to four in round three at Club de Golf Chapultepec, despite suffering a double-bogey at the tenth hole.

Johnson played the tenth abysmally, but responded superbly by covering his final eight holes in four under par, reasserting control on the tournament.

Johnson, 11-1 ante-post, is no bigger than 1-4 with 18 holes to play. He triumphed in the inaugural edition of this event two years ago and was bogey-free for this edition until his problems at the tenth in round three. Prior to that, he carded a wonderful eagle at the second, having driven his ball to four feet on the 367-yard par four.

Rory McIlroy is alone in second place, with a further three-shot gap to those in third. Ante-post favourite Justin Thomas is languishing in 37th place, 16 shots off the pace.

Leaderboard
-16 Dustin Johnson
-12 Rory McIlroy
-9 Patrick Reed, Patrick Cantlay, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Smith
-8 Ian Poulter, Kiradech Aphibarnrat

Best prices
1-4 D Johnson, 9-2 R McIlroy, 66 P Reed, S Garcia, P Cantlay, 80 C Smith, 150 bar

Final-day advice
The 2017 WGC-HSBC Champions must always be noted when Dustin Johnson scoots clear at the top of a leaderboard through three rounds. Johnson infamously blew a six-shot lead, allowing Justin Rose to come from eight shots behind in the final round to beat him.

Typically, though, Johnson is an excellent closer of tournaments, and that Shanghai debacle was the exception to the rule. He has won 19 times on the US Tour and it is a brave punter who opposes the Carolinian giant making it 20 in Mexico.

Johnson has already got a 2019 victory on the board – the Saudi International at the start of this month – and he played well after a lacklustre opening round in the Genesis Open last week. His game looks in perfect condition for him to comfortably defend his four-shot advantage and secure a second Mexico Championship title.

Johnson was recommended at 5-4 prior to round three, and only high-rollers can go to the well again at 1-4. Rory McIlroy is close enough if good enough, but he has missed some tiddlers over the last two days and probably lacks the confidence to topple the world number three from so far back.

McIlroy has played poorly in the final group of tournaments over the last three years, with Graeme Storm and Haotong Li among those who have defeated him, and the Northern Irishman has lost the nack of converting winning opportunities. Just last Sunday, when a holed bunker shot at the 16th gave McIlroy a sniff of Genesis Open glory, he closed with a pair of fives to end any hope.

The rest of the field have surely given Johnson too much of a start and the outright market is unattractive. The final-round threeball card lacks any value, either, and punters looking for a sporting Sunday wager should consider Johnson to win the tournament by exactly four shots at 9-1 with Sky Bet. McIlroy will give it everything he has, but Johnson is playing well enough to comfortably repel his rival to the line.

The Paddy Power 'Power Price' of 2-1 about Johnson winning by four shots or more is also worth backing. The final group of Johnson, McIlroy and Patrick Reed is scheduled off at 6.10pm. Clear, calm weather is forecast.

Outright recommendations
D Johnson to win by four shots
1pt 9-1 Sky Bet

D Johnson to win by four shots or more
1pt 2-1

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