Hotshot Haotong Li set to upset Dustin Johnson in the desert

Sky Sports Golf, 9.30am Sunday

Story so far
Dustin Johnson looked to be cruising to a Sunday lead in the Saudi International when four shots clear with only a handful of holes remaining in round three, but Haotong Li produced back-to-back eagles at the 17th and 18th to tie the American at 16 under par.

Johnson, a pre-tournament 8-1 chance, closed with six consecutive pars, including a hugely disappointing five at the final hole after his enormous drive bounded through the fairway and into the water, which was a stark contrast to the wet sail which Li carried to the hut.

Li produced some truly sensational golf, carding four eagles in his round – pitch-ins at the first and the tenth, followed by successful eagle putts at the final two holes. It was name on the trophy stuff.

Li, 28-1 ante-post, is bidding to make up for the disappointment of last week's Dubai Desert Classic. The Chinaman suffered an extremely harsh two-shot penalty for his caddie supposedly helping him line up a putt, dropping from third place to 12th in the process. He is a best-price 13-8 for some immediate desert revenge at Royal Greens Country Club, while Johnson is 4-6 favourite.

Leaderboard
-16 Haotong Li, Dustin Johnson
-11 Tom Lewis
-9 Alexander Levy, Ryan Fox

Best prices
4-6 D Johnson, 13-8 H Li, 33 T Lewis, 150 R Fox, 200 A Levy, 250 bar

Final-day advice
What Haotong Li achieved on Saturday at Royal Greens should not be underplayed – and it provided further proof that the Chinese youngster has got magic hands. The future of the 23-year-old, who carded a final-round 63 to finish third in the 2017 Open, looks extremely bright.

Power has increased, his touch on and around the greens is sublime, and Li has shown that he can take on top-class opposition in the Gulf and triumph in a head-to-head duel. Rory McIlroy was expected to see Li off when they battled for the 2018 Dubai Desert Classic title, but it was the outsider who prevailed in gutsy fashion.

Since the Dubai heroics, Li has lost a similar duel with Justin Rose for the Turkish Airlines Open, but he may have learned the lessons from that setback and be able to put them into good use on Saudi Sunday. He rushed his putts over the closing stages of his playoff against Rose, so hopefully will not make the same mistake again.

Making four eagles in a round – particularly three at par-fours – is ridiculous. Li must have a sense that the golfing gods are offering recompense for his controversial two-shot penalty in Dubai last week. Li has certainly got the attention of Johnson and the outright prices look too skewed in the American's favour.

Johnson, who has developed into one of the most confident wedge-wielders on the planet, has enjoyed plotting his way around Royal Greens. But it is not difficult to imagine a final round with a cold putter in hand allowing Li to kick clear. A sunny, calm Sunday is forecast, so birdies should be freely available, and Li seems the more likely to convert them.

Li tops the putting stats through 54 holes, averaging just 25 putts per round, and his stroke is looking as smooth as silk. Johnson obviously has a more impressive mantelpiece and world ranking, but he has never won an event in the desert and he has never won a regulation European Tour event.

Bookmakers like to reflect potential levels of trade – and the layers know casual observers will be more attracted to the bigger name of Johnson – but Li looks far superior value at a best-price 13-8. Anything odds-against is more than fair.

Tom Lewis has been playing well, but, like the rest of the field has probably given the leading duo too much of a lead. Like with the US Tour event this week, a head-to-head Sunday battle appears on the cards, with Li fancied to beat Johnson. A Li double with Justin Thomas, who appears the most likely Phoenix Open champion, may appeal to some punters.

Li and Johnson are scheduled to tee off at 9.45am UK and Ireland time in the final twoball at Royal Greens.

Outright recommendation
H Li
4pts 13-8 Betfair, Power

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