Honda Classic: Steve Palmer's golf betting tips, preview & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 1pm Thursday

Florida-based trio Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka dominate the betting close to home this week, the American superstars expected to handle the tough test of PGA National better than most. Thomas and Fowler have won the last two Honda Classics.

Thomas was inconsistent in Mexico last week, closing with a 62 for ninth place, and playing well without winning has become a habit since the Ryder Cup.

Fowler won the Phoenix Open at the start of this month, a victory sandwiched between two sloppy performances, while Koepka is competing in mainland America for the first time since the Tour Championship and has struggled for consistency in four starts this year.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Gary Woodland 18-1
PGA National is a venue which demands tee-to-green solidity – the punishment for poor ball-striking is typically severe – and few players in the Honda Classic field can approach the assignment with more self-belief than Gary Woodland.

This season Woodland has continued to improve, establishing himself as one of the most consistent ball-strikers on the planet, and an overdue victory could be coming this week.

The 34-year-old started this term with fifth place in the CIMB Classic and second spot behind Koepka in the CJ Cup, and his opening spin of 2019 resulted in the runner-up cheque at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, where an inspired final-round 62 from Xander Schauffele meant a luckless Woodland was beaten by a shot.

Ninth place in the Farmers Insurance Open was followed by seventh in Phoenix, then closing rounds of 67 and 69 hauled Woodland up to 17th spot in the WGC-Mexico Championship last week. The Butch Harmon disciple is oozing swing control, while Phil Kenyon has got the putting stroke sorted. A fourth US Tour title seems inevitable at some stage soon.

The first of Woodland's three victories came in Florida – the 2011 Transitions Championship – and he was sixth in the Honda Classic in his previous outing. Six years later, he got even closer to Honda glory, finishing second behind Fowler.

Woodland lives in Florida and seems to thrive at this time of the year, with wins in February and March, and a 2011 Bob Hope Classic playoff defeat in late January. Everything points to the popular powerhouse being in the mix on Sunday.

Next best bet

Billy Horschel 40-1
A first son arrived for the Horschel family in the first week of February and little Axel has provided further inspiration for Billy Horschel to make the most of his ball-striking ability. The former FedEx Cup champion has got his game in good order and can threaten home-state glory this week.

Horschel has won four US Tour titles as an individual, as well as the Zurich Classic alongside Scott Piercy, and his best hope will always be on difficult layouts which reward his typically solid tee-to-green work. PGA National fits the bill and three-year form figures of 8-4-MC encourage interest. He was on a streak of four consecutive missed cuts when flopping 12 months ago.

This time, Horschel has got seven months of commendable form behind him, a hot streak which has seen him twice finish runner-up, including at the Tour Championship, and finish third in two FedEx Cup playoff events. Eighth place at Torrey Pines was a tidy performance a month ago. He was born and bred in Florida, still lives there, and craves a first US Tour success there.

Others worth backing

Daniel Berger 35-1
Charl Schwartzel 70-1
Another born and bred Floridian who can enter the Honda equation is Daniel Berger, who lives in Jupiter, a 20-minute drive north of Palm Beach Gardens. That local knowledge helped the youngster win the 2009 FCWT National Championship, a top junior event, at PGA National, then he returned six years later as a professional for his Honda debut and lost a playoff for the title to Padraig Harrington.

Berger's two US Tour victories have come on a tough par-70 – TPC Southwind in the St Jude Classic – and his 2017 Travelers Championship playoff defeat to Jordan Spieth was also on a par-70 which was not yielding many birdies. PGA National is right up his alley in more ways than one.

Berger, sixth in the US Open and 12th in the US PGA last season, suffered a wrist injury in the closing weeks of the year. Almost five months on the sidelines ended with 12th place in the Desert Classic, before missed cuts at Torrey Pines and Phoenix. The 25-year-old bounced back with a share of second place on his Puerto Rico Open debut last week though, closing with a 66, and reported himself as feeling fully fit for the first time in months. The 2015 Rookie of the Year looks ready to rumble again.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Charl Schwartzel, a Palm Beach-based South African who, like Berger, could take great heart from a closing 66 in Puerto Rico on Sunday. Schwartzel, third in the South African Open in December, started the US Tour season poorly and made a Puerto Rico debut in a bid to find a groove. A bogey-free Sunday and a tie for sixth place was encouraging.

Away from Augusta, where Schwartzel became Masters champion in 2011, all of his best US Tour work has come in the Sunshine State. He won the 2016 Valspar Championship, he was runner-up in the 2010 WGC-CA Championship in Miami, he was fourth in the same event two years later, and he tied second in the Players Championship at Sawgrass last year.

Schwartzel has posted three top-15 finishes in his last five Honda starts, including fifth place in 2012, and his best chances of success these days are on courses where there is a premium on ball-striking over putting.

Players to note

Cameron Smith
The ever-improving Aussie youngster made an excellent Mexico Championship debut last week, sharing sixth place, and is teeing up in his adopted home state. A title challenge on his Honda debut would come as no surprise.

Alexander Noren
The Swede was abysmal in Mexico last week, but the Honda is an assignment which suits. He finished third last year and won at Paris National, a similar test to this on the European Tour, a few months later.

Martin Kaymer
The German is another European worth considering for a tournament which has thrown up nine overseas winners in the last 14 editions. The 2014 Sawgrass champion loves a grind.

Emiliano Grillo
The Florida-based Argentinian was poor in Mexico last week, but he won the 2015 Web.com Tour Championship in the Sunshine State, loves a challenging tee-to-green layout, and finished eighth in the Honda last year.

Bud Cauley
The locally-based maiden could use his course knowledge to force his way into the places in an event short of strength in depth.

Webb Simpson
The runaway Sawgrass champion will be pleased to return to a Florida track which demands accuracy. He tied fifth last year and has become one of the most consistent operators in the sport.

Staking plan
G Woodland
2.5pts each-way 18-1 general
B Horschel
1.5pts each-way 40-1 Ladbrokes
D Berger
1.5pts each-way 35-1 bet365
C Schwartzel
1pt each-way 70-1 Betfred

Honda classic lowdown

Course PGA National (Champion Course), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

Prize money $6.8m ($1.188m to the winner)

Length 7,125 yards Par 70 Field 144

Course records - 72 holes 267 Camilo Villegas (2010) 18 holes 61 Brian Harman (2012)

Course winners taking part Ernie Els, Rory Sabbatini, Michael Thompson, Russell Henley, Padraig Harrington, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas

When to bet By noon Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports from 1pm Thursday

Time difference Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - WGC-Mexico Championship 1 D Johnson (11-1), 2 R McIlroy (12-1), T3 P Casey (35-1), I Poulter (55-1), K Aphibarnrat (150-1); Puerto Rico Open 1 M Trainer (125-1), T2 D Berger (14-1), R Sloan (150-1), J Wagner (66-1), A Baddeley (28-1)

Course overview The Champion Course is one of the toughest layouts on the US Tour and was designed by George Fazio with view to staging major professional tournaments.

The 1983 Ryder Cup and the 1987 USPGA Championship were held there, before Jack Nicklaus oversaw a 1990 redesign. The Honda Classic has been at this venue since 2007, with 72-hole totals of just six under par or worse enough to top the leaderboard on three occasions.

The back-nine is particularly difficult and pars are worth their weight in gold. The famous Bear Trap – a trio of brutal holes from the 15th to the 17th – are where the event is often won and lost.

The two par-fives – the third and the 18th – are where players will expect to pick up shots on the card. The 365-yard, downhill par-four first is another golden birdie opportunity.

Story of last year Justin Thomas stiffed a wedge at the 18th hole to force a playoff against Luke List, a US Tour maiden who was beaten by a Thomas birdie at the first extra hole.

Weather forecast Hot, sunny, with gentle breezes for the most part. Thunderstorms could lurk in the area on Thursday and Sunday.

Type of player suited to the challenge The Champion Course, with heavy bunkering and plenty of water hazards, is a strong tee-to-green test where only quality ball-striking will produce results.

Key attribute Accuracy

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