Steve Palmer's free Italian Open predictions & golf betting tips: our expert has five big-price selections

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When to bet on the Italian Open

By 6am on Thursday

Where can I watch the Italian Open?

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from midday on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Italian Open predictions

John Parry
3pts each-way 45-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Martin Couvra
3pts each-way 30-1 Paddy Power, Betfair

Oliver Lindell
2pts each-way 50-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Jack Senior
1pt each-way 100-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Rafael Cabrera Bello
0.5pt each-way 250-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Recommended

4/5

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Steve Palmer's Italian Open preview

Jayden Schaper and Francesco Laporta are tempting DP World Tour maidens this week – the improving South African youngster and the in-form Italian should make their presence felt – but both have been shown great respect in the market and have to be reluctantly left out of the staking plan given their short odds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

John Parry 45-1

A Challenge Tour event at this week's venue in September last year went the way of John Parry and the Yorkshireman could prove the king of Monte Argentario again on Sunday.

Parry won three times on the Challenge Tour last year, then topped the leaderboard at the Mauritius Open on the DP World Tour just before Christmas, peaking as a golfer in his late 30s. The two-time DPWT champion has an ideal game for this week's layout, as he showed with an 18-under-par total in September.

Parry nearly won the Kenya Open at the end of February, then was fourth in the Soudal Open in May, underlining his comfort on short, tight tracks where there is a premium on accuracy. He gets ideal conditions again this week and can complete a DPWT hat-trick.

Next best bet

Martin Couvra 30-1

Rising star Martin Couvra won the Turkish Airlines Open last month and further joy should come his way soon. The 22-year-old Frenchman has a beautiful swing and a lovely putting stroke. He won on the Challenge Tour when still an amateur in 2023 and has been loaded with talent from a young age.

Couvra, ninth in the Race to Dubai Rankings, will fancy his chances of converting that position into a PGA Tour card. He finished eighth in the Austrian Open last time out, carding 14 birdies over the weekend, and this birdie machine will be relishing a return to PGA National Italy, where he finished 12th on the Challenge Tour in September.

Other selections

Oliver Lindell 50-1
Jack Senior 100-1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 250-1

Finnish ace Oliver Lindell fired a course-record 62 on his way to sixth place in the Challenge Tour event at PGA National Italy in September and has returned in excellent nick. He was 12th in Turkey last month, then 25th in the Soudal and 13th in the Austrian Open. A terrible Saturday destroyed his KLM Open hopes, but only five players outscored him in the final round when he closed with a 68.

Lindell, who has won three times on the Nordic Golf League, looks ready for a DPWT breakthrough at the age of 26, while Jack Senior and Rafael Cabrera Bello are also worth following at juicy prices.

Senior closed with rounds of 67 and 68 for 21st place in the Challenge Tour event at this week's venue and this accurate operator is well suited to the layout. The Morecambe lad, whose Challenge Tour victories came in Scotland and Northern Ireland, is superb at controlling his ball in a breeze. He won in Italy on the Alps Tour in 2012. He finished fourth in the KLM Open last time out and nobody outscored him in the final round.

Cabrera Bello finished 13th in the KLM Open last time out, following 22nd spot in Austria, and the former world number16, who represented Europe in the 2016 Ryder Cup, appears to be getting his act together again at the age of 41. The four-time DPWT champion, fourth in the 2018 Italian Open, is at his best on short tracks like this one.

Recommended

4/5

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Course guide for the Italian Open

• Course PGA National Italy, Argentario Golf Club, Monte Argentario, Grosseto, Italy
• Prize money $3m ($500,000 to the winner)
• Length 6,857 yards
• Par 71 – four par-fives; nine par-fours; five par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Shaun Norris (92), Kristoffer Reitan (99), Jordan Smith (108), John Parry (109), Keita Nakajima (116)
• Course records - 72 holes 266 John Parry (2024 Italian Challenge Open) 18 holes 62 Oliver Lindell (2024 Italian Challenge Open)
• Course winner taking part John Parry
• When to bet By 6am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 12pm on Thursday
• Time difference Italy is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview PGA National Italy, designed by David Mezzacane and Baldovino Dassu and opened in 2006, hosts the Italian Open for the first time this week. It staged the Italian Challenge Open on the Challenge Tour last September, with John Parry taking the title. Parry reached 18 under par, highlighting how this short course can be overwhelmed by professionals. Elevated tees and are a theme of the track. The front nine is fairly open, but the back nine has tight, tree-lined fairways
• Story of last year Marcel Siem triumphed at Adriatic GC, beating Tom McKibbin in a playoff
• Weather forecast Sunny and hot, with light to moderate breezes
• Type of player suited to the challenge Accuracy seems the key to success on a short, fiddly layout, with some breeze adding to the test
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Italian Open key stat

Five of the last seven Italian Open winners finished 50th or worse in their preceding event

Read more ...

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