Controlled Cameron Smith should secure successful title defence

Story so far
Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith, favourite and second-favourite ante-post, are first and second with 18 holes to play in the Australian PGA Championship.

The cream has risen to the top of the leaderboard at the Royal Pines Resort, Queensland, and Leishman is three shots adrift of Smith with a round to go. Leishman is four shots clear of the chasing pack.

Leishman can be backed at 100-30 to turn the tables on Smith, while the leader is a best-price 30-100 with BoyleSports.

Leaderboard
-14 Cameron Smith
-11 Marc Leishman
-7 Matthew Millar, Harold Varner

Best prices
30-100 C Smith, 100-30 M Leishman, 40 H Varner, 100 M Millar, 300 bar

Final-day advice
A sunny final day, with gentle breezes, is forecast, and there is no reason to believe this tournament is anything other than a straight match between World Cup playing partners Cameron Smith and Marc Leishman.

Smith outplayed his buddy when they were an alliance in the World Cup last week and he has done so again as an opponent over the first three days of the Australian PGA.

Smith secured Gold Coast glory at this venue 12 months ago, coming from behind before defeating Jordan Zunic in playoff, and this time he is the hunted rather than the hunter. The increasingly mature and impressive Queenslander should have no trouble dealing with the new role.

Racing Post Sport followers are on headline selection Smith, who was backed in from 6-1 to 5-1 pre-tournament, and cautious punters have a straightforward way of providing themselves with cover by taking the 100-30 Leishman. It would be a huge shock should anyone else take the trophy.

If possible, though, Smith backers should hold their position – because he can be fancied to repel Leishman. The older player is acutely aware of the talent of the younger one – a respect which borders on self-intimidation, even at the differing stages of their careers. Leishman is a four-time US Tour champion, but he knows how good 25-year-old Smith is and will probably need lots of early encouragement in the final round if he is to overcome his three-shot deficit.

Given Smith carded a bogey-free third round and looks in complete control, that encouragement seems unlikely. A Leishman victory is obviously possible from here, but a successful title defence from Smith is much more likely, and the 30-100 Smith is a more than fair price.

Harold Varner, the 2016 Royal Pines champ, seems likely to finish third behind Smith and Leishman, and the American can be backed at 2-1 with Sky Bet in a market without the front two.

And Nick Flanagan, a four-time Web.com Tour winner with a touch of class, is a fair final-round twoballs bet against Matt Jager (12.12am UK and Irelnd time). Smith and Leishman are on the tee at 12.40am.

Outright recommendation
H Varner without C Smith & M Leishman
1pt 2-1 Sky Bet

Twoballs recommendation
N Flanagan
1pt 6-5 Hills

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