Confident Justin Thomas not finished with Rickie Fowler hunt

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Story so far
Rickie Fowler took control of the Phoenix Open in round three at TPC Scottsdale, the popular Californian extending his lead from one shot to four with a seven-under-par 64.

Fowler, 20-1 ante-post, has compiled rounds of 64, 65 and 64 to reach 20 under par with 18 holes to play and leave the rest of the field in his wake.

The 30-year-old, winner of four official US Tour titles as well as the 2017 Hero World Challenge, fired four birdies in his first six holes of the third round to quickly scoot clear. He is a best-price 2-5 with bet365 to complete the job and convert his advantage into Phoenix glory. Fowler has twice finished runner-up in this event.

Matt Kuchar, alone in second place, and Justin Thomas, a shot further behind in third place, are joint 13-2 second-favourites. Ante-post market leader Jon Rahm is tied for 18th spot, 12 shots adrift of the rampant pacesetter.

Leaderboard
-20 Rickie Fowler
-16 Matt Kuchar
-15 Justin Thomas
-13 Byeong Hun An, Branden Grace
-12 Gary Woodland, Bubba Watson

Best prices
2-5 R Fowler, 13-2 J Thomas, M Kuchar, 66 B An, 80 G Woodland, 100 B Watson, B Grace, 250 bar

Final-day advice
Rickie Fowler has some ghosts to lay to rest in the Phoenix Open and how he performs mentally in the final round will arguably determine how this tournament unfolds.

Fowler is clearly swinging superbly, he is loving his new TaylorMade ball, and he is massively course-proven, having twice had one hand on the Phoenix Open trophy in the past before finishing second.

The manner of those narrow defeats, though, should not be underplayed, and there must be every chance of Fowler tightening up should one of the chasing pack apply some early pressure.

Fowler threw away the 2010 Phoenix Open with a terrible course-management blunder – a lay-up from prime position in the 15th fairway which allowed Hunter Mahan to sneak past him – and an even more agonising reverse was suffered by the orange-clad hopeful six years later. Two Sunday bogeys at the easy par-four 17th hole – one in regulation play, then another in a playoff – allowed Hideki Matsuyama to deny Fowler again.

Fowler cried in the post-round press conference in 2016, heartbroken that he had not managed to triumph with his father and grandfather in attendance. They had never seen him win a US Tour event. TPC Scottsdale and its 17th-hole greenside water hazard had broken the fans' favourite.

Carrying these mental scars, Fowler will be keen to stretch his lead early and avoid any late tension, but Justin Thomas seems unlikely to allow any such luxury.

Thomas was not in possession of his A-game alongside Fowler in round three, but a thoroughly professional bogey-free back-nine in which he birdied the two par-fives and the easy 17th, kept the highest ranked player in the field within striking distance.

Thomas is a much more prolific champion than Fowler – five years younger but with five more US Tour titles – and the Major champion of the final threeball could exhibit his killer instinct when it matters most.

There have been four rounds of 60 through the history of the Phoenix Open – it is a track which serves up low scores – and Thomas will be aware that he is still well in the hunt from five shots behind. Rain is set to soften the previously hard greens, so pins will be more accessible.

Thomas is the outright wager to overcome Fowler, Matt Kuchar and the rest, while final-round threeball punters are pointed towards two-time Phoenix champion Hideki Matsuyama, who can see off Bud Cauley and Webb Simpson in the 4.15pm UK and Ireland time contest. The final group of Fowler, Kuchar and Thomas is scheduled on the tee at 5.45pm.

Outright recommendation
J Thomas
1pt 13-2 Sky Bet

Twoballs recommendation
H Matsuyama
1pt 6-4 general

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