China Open: Steve Palmer's betting preview, lowdown & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 7.30am Thursday

Twice in the last four years the China Open has been won by a Chinese player, underlining the rapid progress that has been made in Asian golf in the last decade, and 45 home representatives go to post at Genzon Golf Club this week.

The sport has never been more global, with world-class talent emerging from everywhere, and Haotong Li is the pride of China at the age of 23. The 2016 China Open champion has high hopes of a repeat success on Sunday.

Palmer's top tip
Haotong Li 14-1
As a teenager five years ago, Haotong Li quickly showed a liking for performing in his homeland, winning four low-grade professional events in China, then in 2015 he almost delivered European Tour glory in the People's Republic, losing a playoff for the Shenzhen International.

Kiradech Aphibarnrat edged a nervous Li that day at Genzon GC, and a much more mature Haotong has returned to the same venue this week looking to go one better. The crowd favourite appears to have an outstanding chance of success.

Li finished sixth in the 2015 China Open, before winning the title by three shots the following year, a barnstorming final-round 64 sending the galleries wild. Since then, he has won the Dubai Desert Classic, seeing off Rory McIlroy in a Sunday duel, he has twice finished second in the Turkish Airlines Open, and he fired a sensational final-round 63 to finish third in the 2017 Open.

As Li has grown in stature physically, his status in the game has mirrored that development, and the wiry kid has blossomed into a strapping six-footer who averages 312 yards off the tee on the European Tour this season.

His emergence as one of the longest drivers has been allied to what has always been magnificent touch on and around the greens.

Li's last tournament at home resulted in a creditable 11th place in the WGC-HSBC Champions at the end of October, but this week anything other than the lifting of the trophy will be a disappointment. He has played well this year without winning and is eager for silverware.

Li suffered a hugely controversial two-shot penalty in Dubai at the end of January, his third-place finish becoming a share of 12th thanks to ridiculous meddling by officials, then he produced some incredible golf in the Saudi International next time out, beaten only by Dustin Johnson.

More recently, Li took the scalps of Brooks Koepka and Alex Noren to qualify from his group in the WGC-Match Play, losing to champion Kevin Kisner, and 43rd spot in the Masters last time out was a decent effort on only his second Augusta start.

Li was grouped with Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm for the opening two rounds – the first time he had ever teed up alongside Woods – and got tailed off under the immense pressure. Li closed with a Sunday 68, though, which was bettered by only one player in the field.

Hotshot Haotong has not competed since the Masters, has freshened up, is based in Shanghai so does not carry the jet-lag that is handicapping most of this field, and pre-tournament storms have created a soft track which is perfect for his powerful, attacking game.

Next best
Nacho Elvira 33-1
Some wide drives, back-to-back sixes on the 12th and 13th, and an opening 77, meant Nacho Elvira went on to miss the cut by a shot in the Hassan II Trophy last week, but that surprise setback was probably only a blip for a European Tour maiden who has been seriously threatening silverware over the last two months.

The much more generous fairways of Genzon suit him better and the swashbuckling Spaniard can be fancied to contend. Compatriot and peer Jorge Campillo, who is the same age as Elvira, got off the mark after a series of near-misses in Morocco on Sunday, which should serve as inspiration for his pal, whose career has followed a similar path.

Elvira has won four times on the Challenge Tour and the first of those victories came in China in the 2013 Foshan Open at a course with similarities to this week's assignment. His best finish of 2014 came at Genzon GC in the 2014 China Open and two subsequent visits have yielded results of eighth and 25th, the latter coming after four consecutive European Tour missed cuts. Despite that form, he conjured a ten-under-par weekend on a layout he loves.

Elvira, second, second and sixth in his three events prior to the Hassan woe, may prove the biggest threat to Li and his army of fans.

Other selections
Ross Fisher 28-1
Sean Crocker 35-1
John Catlin 250-1

China has been a happy hunting ground for five-time European Tour champion Ross Fisher, who finished fourth on his first visit in the 2005 China Open. He was outside the top 500 of the world rankings that week, but second place in the 2007 HSBC Champions followed, then second in the 2014 BMW Masters in Shanghai, third in the 2015 WGC-HSBC, sixth in the 2016 WGC-HSBC and sixth in 2017 China Open.

Fisher is also proven at this venue, having finished third in the 2017 Shenzhen International at Genzon. Conditions this week are ideal for Fisher, who appreciates cut in the ground and slow greens. The former Ryder Cup winner, who boasts a top-20 finish in all four Majors, is a powerhouse who finished 13th last time out on much less suitable terrain in the Maybank Championship.

There are several course debutants tackling Genzon this week and rising star Sean Crocker seems the most likely to make an impact. The power-packed Zimbabwe-born American youngster finished second in the Hassan on Sunday, having finished like a train for 12th place in the Kenya Open in his start prior.

Genzon suits him well and his two spins in China on the Challenge Tour last year both yielded a third-place finish. AJ Hopkins, a school friend of Crocker, gave up his job in Beverly Hills to become full-time caddie for his pal. Last week was their first event in tandem, they gelled superbly, and they should both be rich by the time Crocker's career has ended.

Complete a five-strong attack with John Catlin, who won three times on the Asian Tour last year, including once in China and once in Chinese Taipei. The Californian, 28, started this year making cuts on the US Tour and has been dismissed far too easily by the layers for an assignment which suits this week.

Others to note
Scott Hend
The Aussie powerhouse was fourth in the 2016 Shenzhen International at Genzon and won the Maybank Championship a month ago. He has strong credentials, but was competing in an event in Korea on Tuesday, so has not had ideal preparation.

Julian Suri
The American slugger has form figures of 20-4-2 from his three events this year and should be a dangerman on his Genzon debut.

Kurt Kitayama
Another big-hitting American making his first visit to Genzon. He has won two of his first 13 events on the European Tour.

Erik van Rooyen
The European Tour maiden let another great chance slip through his fingers in Morocco on Sunday. His Challenge Tour victory came in China, though, and he should contend again.

Thomas Detry
The powerful Belgian played well over the weekend of the Hassan to finish ninth and he should enjoy the Genzon set-up.

Gavin Green
The Malaysian should love the dimensions of Genzon and make countless birdies. A tempting option at 80-1.

Staking plan
H Li
3pts each-way 14-1 Sky Bet
N Elvira
2pts each-way 33-1 Betfred
R Fisher
2pts each-way 28-1 Betfair, Power
S Crocker
1.5pts each-way 35-1 Betfair, Power
J Catlin
0.5pt each-way 250-1 Betfair, Power

The lowdown

Course Genzon Golf Club, Shenzhen, China
Prize money €2.6m (€448,183 to the winner)
Length 7,145 yards
Par 72
Field 156
Course records - 72 holes 269 Alexander Levy (2014) 18 holes 62 Alexander Levy (2014), Callum Shinkwin (2016 Shenzhen International)

Course winners taking part Alexander Levy, Soomin Lee, Bernd Wiesberger

When to bet By 12.30am tonight

When to watch Live on Sky Sports from 7.30am tomorrow

Time difference China is seven hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Hassan II Trophy 1 J Campillo (25-1), T2 J Suri (25-1), S Crocker (90-1), E Van Rooyen (28-1), 5 D Lipsky (56-1), T6 M Kawamura (66-1), G Forrest (350-1)

Course overview Genzon GC, designed by Neil Haworth, made its European Tour debut for the 2014 China Open before becoming the venue for the Shenzhen International, which was staged from 2015 to 2017, so punters have four years of course form to digest.

Scores of 19, 12, 16 and 16 under par have been atop the Genzon leaderboard after 72 holes, so this is a fairly straightforward assignment for professionals.

The fairways and greens are paspalum grass, the fairways are wide, the rough is short and the greens are slow.

The terrain is undulating and the fairways are tree-lined until the final seven holes, which are more exposed, with water hazards waiting to punish the errant instead of timber.

There are two par-fives on each nine and the 17th hole is the longest of them at 575 yards.

Three of the par-threes are more than 200 yards long, providing the most difficult tests.

Story of last year Alexander Bjork fired a final-round 65 at Topwin Country Club, the Swede winning by a shot to claim a maiden European Tour title.

Weather forecast Tuesday thunderstorms and Wednesday rain look set to soften the course pre-tournament, before clear, calm conditions for the competition days

Type of player suited to the challenge Scoring should be extremely low as the field make merry on a soft, easy track, and a powerhouse with a hot putter could go birdie crazy.

Key attribute Power

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