BMW International Open: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis and tips

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Sunday

Story so far
The BMW International Open is back on schedule, the European Tour cleverly adjusting tee-times to avoid the latest of what have been regular thunderstorms in Munich this week, and the event should be concluded on Sunday under electricity-free skies.

A calm, clear forecast for the final round means the competitors are out in twoballs at the normal time, and a thrilling shootout should lie in store, with some big names aboard a congested leaderboard.

Ante-post favourite Matt Wallace is among them, the Race to Dubai leader reaching 11 under par through three rounds, just two shots off the pace set by pre-tournament 28-1 chance Jordan Smith.

Matt Fitzpatrick and Matthias Schwab are tied for second place, sandwiched between Smith and Wallace on the board, while Lee Westwood is among those sharing sixth place. Sergio Garcia missed the cut.

Leaderboard
-13 Jordan Smith
-12 Matt Fitzpatrick, Matthias Schwab
-11 Matt Wallace, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-10 Lee Westwood, Sebastian Soderberg, Matthieu Pavon

Best prices
11-4 J Smith, 3 M Fitzpatrick, 9-2 M Wallace, 11-2 M Schwab, 14 C Bezuidenhout, L Westwood, 40 S Soderberg, M Pavon, M Kaymer, 50 A Pavan, 150 bar

Final-round advice
It is pleasing that the weather seems set to be more obliging for the denouement of the BMW International – because the leaderboard is fascinating and entertainment seems guaranteed.

Jordan Smith heads the way – a European Tour underachiever who has made a habit of contending without finding the finishing kick needed to deliver further silverware. His only Tour triumph came in Germany – in the 2017 European Open – so maybe the positive vibes which come with teeing up in the same country have aided performance.

Smith is well suited to the Nord-Eichenried layout and has obviously got every chance, but he is unfortunate to have such high-class compatriots right on his tail. The Matts – Fitzpatrick and Wallace – are two of the best in the business at converting winning opportunities on the European Tour.

Matthias Schwab is one of the brightest young talents on the circuit, but yet to shed his maiden tag, while the same can be said of Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Throw in grizzled veteran Lee Westwood, sniffing around in sixth place, and Smith has a formidable chasing pack to repel.

All things considered, punters getting involved in the outright market at this stage are advised to focus on the 11.33am (UK and Ireland time) twoball. Fitzpatrick and Wallace play together in round four and it is not a big price that the champion emerges from this pairing. Fitzpatrick, 24, has won five European Tour titles, while Wallace, 29, has won four, including last year's BMW International at a different venue.

Given Fitzpatrick has a one-shot advantage over his playing partner, and has outscored him by five shots over the last two days, it is the 3-1 Fitzpatrick which appeals slightly more than the 9-2 Wallace. Fitzpatrick's fresh alliance with ace caddie Billy Foster was always likely to be a successful one, and the pair can get off the mark together with BMW glory.

Fitzpatrick, with Foster alongside, was in the final twoball of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, alongside Rory McIlroy, at Bay Hill in March. This will seem like a piece of cake in comparison. The Sheffield lad beat McIlroy that day and was unlucky that Francesco Molinari roared past them both with final-round fireworks. Fitzpatrick's first victory of 2019 can come in Munich.

Nothing appeals on the final-round twoball card. The final twoball of Smith and Schwab is scheduled to tee off at 11.43am.

Recommendation
M Fitzpatrick
3pts 3-1 Betfair, Power

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport