Galway v Kerry predictions and All-Ireland football final betting tips

Free GAA football tips, best bets and match previews for Sunday's All-Ireland final between Galway and Kerry.

Where to watch

RTE & Sky Sports Arena, 3.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Kerry -3
4pts 4-5 Paddy Power

Over 19.5 Kerry points
3pts 5-6 bet365

Over 1.5 Kerry goals
2pts 6-5 BoyleSports, Paddy Power

P Geaney to outscore D Comer
3pts 5-4 BoyleSports

P Geaney to score over 2.5 points
2pts 6-4 BoyleSports

P Geaney to score over 3.5 points
2pts 9-2 BoyleSports

P Geaney RTE Man of the Match
1pt 14-1 Paddy Power

Already advised

Kerry to win All-Ireland
4pts 11-8 April 16

Kerry-Galway All-Ireland final
2pts 6-1 June 25

P Clifford Footballer of the Year
1pt 25-1 April 16

S Walsh top scorer
1pt 16-1 April 16

All-Ireland final preview

Kerry climbed Everest to get to the All-Ireland final, belatedly breaking their Dublin hoodoo in a spine-tingling semi-final, so negotiating Ben Nevis to reach their destination should be a formality. Don't expect any stumbles en route to the peak.

Galway have been the surprise packages of 2022 but they have beaten a pair of Ulster teams since emerging from Connacht. It is one thing suffocating Armagh and Derry, but doing likewise to Kerry is not so straightforward and if Galway fall behind early and have to come out of their shell it could get ugly.

The last time these sides met in a competitive outing was in May last year, round one of the league in Tralee, and it was X-rated viewing for Galway fans. Kerry won by 22 points - 4-21 to 0-11 - and, while a similar scenario is highly unlikely this time, it would not be a surprise if they were on the receiving end of another double-figure margin of defeat.

The cagier this is, the better for Galway. They were atrocious for the first half-hour against Derry but conceded only three points in that shocking spell as Rory Gallagher's charges kept them in the game. If Kerry are afforded the same chances Derry were, this could be over by half-time.

Galway love to play on the counter-attack and Damien Comer's late goal in the semi-final when Derry goalkeeper Odhran Lynch went walkabout was a prime example of how quickly they can turn defence into attack. They crave turnovers, but allowing Kerry to have huge amounts of possession might not be the cleverest idea.

Kerry have superb long-range shooters and they won't be afraid to have a go from distance. If David Clifford can loop around and get himself into scoring positions from 40 metres out, just as he did in the opening half against Dublin, he will punish Galway. So will Sean O' Shea and Paul Geaney, even if the latter was woeful against the Dubs. It was out of character as he was excellent in their win over Mayo in the quarter-final.

It is worth remembering Kerry had a penalty to go seven points up before half-time against Dublin. Had O'Shea slotted that home it would have made the score 2-7 to 0-6 and I have no doubt they would have sailed into the sunset in splendid isolation.

O'Shea struck it poorly and Evan Comerford saved so Dublin were off the hook. They have lifted the Sam Maguire eight times since 2011 and were always going to take advantage of their second chance.

They almost took full advantage only for O'Shea to redeem himself with his miraculous late winner, but Kerry would surely have won far more convincingly had the penalty been converted.

Since Jack O'Connor returned to the helm, he has shored up the Kerry defence with the help of Paddy Tally. They have conceded only one goal in the championship, a terrific strike from Cormac Costello, and they kept clean sheets in six of their eight league outings as well. Only Tyrone and Monaghan managed to find the net against them.

It is hard to see Galway getting goal chances. They got two against Derry but we all know the second of those was down to ridiculously goalkeeping and they could struggle to break down Kerry’s much-improved rearguard unit.

The build-up to Sunday’s showdown has been dominated by pundits predicting a low-scoring, drab encounter but it's hard to see that happening if Kerry start well. If they break smartly from the traps and edge in front, Galway cannot sit back. They will have to take chances and that is exactly where Kerry will want them to be.

Kerry are averaging 23 points a game in the championship so odds of 5-6 about them reaching 20 points look generous, as do odds-against about them getting two goals or more. Their conversion rate of goal chances has been poor this year but this could be the occasion when the floodgates open.

Galway are a good side, but not a great one. This could be the beginning of an era of Kerry dominance and an emphatic victory is expected. The last two finals have been won by five points and this one could be even more decisive.

Get on Geaney at 9-2 to rediscover his shooting boots

Anything that could have gone wrong, did for Paul Geaney in Kerry's victory over Dublin. He was wayward in his shooting, gave away possession and was put out of his misery by Jack O'Connor in the 42nd when Killian Spillane replaced him. It was one of those days.

But too much has been read into that display and Geaney catches the eye in a number markets.

Geaney was terrific in Kerry's quarter-final win over Mayo. He caused havoc and scored four points. He also got four points in the Munster final and slotted over two in the win over Cork. He was having a very consistent campaign before things went awry against Dublin.

But given the damage David Clifford did in the narrow win over Dublin, and the extra emphasis Padraic Joyce is sure to place on stopping Paudie Clifford and Sean O'Shea, it could be Geaney who profits.

Odds of 6-4 for him to score three points or more is far too generous, while it is worth having a nibble on him to get four points at 9-2, as he did against both Mayo and Limerick.

Damien Comer was exceptional in Galway's victory over Derry, contributing 2-2, but he got only 0-3 out of 2-21 in over 90 minutes of action against Armagh and he tends to drift to win possession when things are not going well for the Tribesman.

Geaney, in stark contrast, will stick close to goal throughout and will be the furthest Kerry player up the pitch for long periods. He is simply a shooter, whereas Comer is also a playmaker.

The last time Kerry played in an All-Ireland final was the 2019 replay against Dublin, a game in which Geaney scored four points. He also got two out of Kerry's nine points in the 2015 final as well. Indeed he topscored the last time the Kingdom lifted the Sam Maguire in 2014 with 1-2.

He has proved himself to be a big-game player and he is much too big in a lot of the individual player markets on the match coupon.

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