All-Ireland SFC semi-finals predictions, tips and odds

Best bets

Donegal
3pts 13-10 Betfair

Donegal to win by four, five or six points
1pt 11-2 Paddy Power

Under 45.5 points
5pts 5-6 Paddy Power

No Kerry goal
2pts 15-8 Boylesports

Shaun Patton RTE Man of the Match
1pt 80-1 Boylesports

Brendan McCole RTE Man of the Match
1pt 20-1 Paddy Power

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GAA predictions

Donegal vs Kerry

BBC/RTE, 3.30pm

It's the first All-Ireland final under the new rules but it's still the same monstrous occasion, the biggest event on the Irish sporting calendar, and it comes served with nerves so don't expect scores to flow in the same manner as they have been doing all season. Backing under 45.5 points over 70 minutes looks the play of the day.

Donegal ran riot against Meath in their semi-final, racking up 3-26 in a game that had 50 points in total. Bt the sting had been taken out of that game by half-time after the underdogs' tiresome pursuit of two-pointers saw them go in five points behind at the break having had the wind behind them.

Donegal scored 1-26 in their quarter-final win over Monaghan and 2-22 against Louth before that.

Kerry are averaging 28 points per game since they reached the knockout stage but an All-Ireland final is an entirely different beast to anything that has gone before it. Just take a look at all the finals over the last decade.

David Clifford of Kerry celebrates during the semi-finalCredit: Sportsfile via Getty Images

The biggest winning score in that time has been the 1-18 Dublin racked up in their replay success over Kerry in 2019 and the average total points in the last ten finals, including two replays, has been 33 points.

The total points spread has been set at 45.5 points for the 2025 final and under the new rules scores have certainly been more plentiful, so it is understandable to see the bar set higher. But Donegal will try to suffocate Kerry and stop the supply to David Clifford so the wide open spaces that appeared in the semi-finals just won't be there.

If this turns into a high-scoring shootout, Kerry win. It's as simple as that. They have the best footballer in the country in Clifford and if he is allowed space, he will punish Donegal time after time after time. Expect Donegal to go after his older brother Paudie, too, and aim to cut the supply chain to David.

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Kerry are the master kickers of the game, the traditionalists who play football the way it should be played, but Jim McGuinness is the master of obstruction and has the power to prevent the Kingdom from doing what they do best.

McGuinness will want Kerry to kick but he will make sure there isn't much space for them to kick into and he will be well aware that you can't afford to let them have free shots from outside the arc as Armagh did in the quarter-finals.

RTE pundit Tomas O Se seemed to suggest Donegal haven't been tested on their way to the decider and that it will come back to haunt them in the big one. But they were seven points down to Monaghan at one stage and ended up winning by six. You can never suck the belief out of this Donegal side no matter how many points you are in front of them.

Donegal defeated Meath in their semi-finalCredit: Sportsfile via Getty Images

Another interesting statistic from recent All-Ireland finals is that not since 2018 have there been more than two goals scored in a decider. There have been only eight goals scored in the last six finals combined so backing Donegal to keep a clean sheet at 15-8 catches the eye.

Meath and Louth both failed to find the net against Donegal in the knockout stage and Kerry don't go looking for goals. Even when they were trailing Armagh in the quarter-final they were happy to chip away at points and managed to score 32 of them. Goals don't give them oxygen in the same way as they do with other sides.

McGuinness has been waiting for this moment. It's the second year of his second stint as Donegal manager as he has been preparing for this game for absolutely ages. This Donegal machine is in perfect working order and I expect them to wear down Kerry in the latter stages, prevailing by somewhere from four to six points.

The Donegal bench could have a big say and being able to call upon Paddy McBreaty in the second half when the game opens up is some trump card to have up your sleeve.

It feels like Donegal's All-Ireland and they can lift the Sam Maguire for a third time.

Shaun Patton could become the first goalkeeper to win the man of the match awardCredit: Sportsfile via Getty Images

Have a saver on Patton at 80-1

The coveted RTE Man of the Match award has been won by a forward for the last six finals in a row thanks to Oisin Conaty, Paul Mannion, David Clifford, Darren McCurry, Con O'Callaghan and Ciaran Kilkenny, but Jack McCaffrey got the gong in the drawn 2019 final, while Mick Fitzsimons got it in the 2016 replay.

What is also worth pointing out is that Fitzsimons made the shortlist of three for his man-marking job on David Clifford in the 2023 final. What that tells you is that whoever is on the Kingdom ace will get kudos for everything he does to keep his scoring to a minimum.

Surely Brendan McCole will be the one tasked with keeping tabs on Clifford so he is worth a small wager at 20-1 in the hope that he can do okay in that individual battle. Nobody has really managed to tame Clifford this year, so if Cole can it really would be a collector's item.

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In the same market, it is hard to resist having a little nibble on Shaun Patton at a massive 80-1.

A goalkeeper hasn't won the award since records began in 1990, but it is a very different position now from the one we used to know. Kick-outs will be critical and, if Patton's boot is purring, he could make a big name for himself.

If, as anticipated, scores are lower than expected and Patton keeps a clean sheet, it will add to his claims and the Donegal number one looks to be about four times the price he should be.

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