Formula 1 Russian Grand Prix prediction, free tip & analysis

Free F1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Formula 1 Russian Grand Prix at Sochi

Where to watch

Practice three Sky Sports F1, 10am, Saturday

Qualifying Sky Sports F1, 1pm, Saturday

Best bet

Lando Norris Russian Grand Prix podium finish
1pt 9-4 general

Preview

McLaren claimed the first one-two finish of the season for any team last time out in Italy, and Mercedes are in prime position to do the same in Sunday’s Russian Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen leads the championship by five points going into the weekend, but the Red Bull ace will start from the back on Sunday in Sochi.

Verstappen was already facing a three-place grid drop as punishment for his collision with title rival Lewis Hamilton in Italy last time, and the team have opted to give him a fresh engine, which leads to a last-place start.

Hamilton’s Mercedes teammate Valtteri Bottas climbed from last to third at Monza after the same penalty, but Verstappen complained during practice that overtaking was impossible. The Dutchman found himself stuck behind the Williams of Nicholas Latifi during his race-simulation run on Friday afternoon.

That doesn’t bode well for his chances of a hefty points haul, and has left something of an opening for Hamilton and Mercedes, who have dominated at the track since its introduction in 2014.

They were in ominous form in practice, as Bottas beat Hamilton to the fastest time in both Friday sessions.

Charles Leclerc will start just ahead of Verstappen, his Ferrari having been fitted with an upgraded power unit for this weekend.

The weather threatens to throw a spanner in the works. Saturday’s forecast is for rain all day, and the race director has acknowledged the possibility that qualifying could take place later than scheduled – or even Sunday morning.

Mixed conditions are expected for race day, although nothing on the scale that caused the non-event in Belgium a few weeks ago.
Fresh from their first win since 2012, McLaren will see Verstappen and Leclerc’s penalties as a golden opportunity to grab another podium.

With qualifying conditions uncertain, it may be better to look for some early value for the race and Lando Norris is a fine bet to pick up another top-three finish.

The young Brit already has four podiums to his name this season, was fourth fastest in practice at Sochi and goes well in the wet.

His McLaren also has impressive top speed, meaning that if qualifying doesn’t go according to plan he will have the tools to make up places in the race.

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