PartialLogo
Football tips

Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy

Birmingham manager Lee Bowyer
Birmingham manager Lee BowyerCredit: Getty Images

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under 10.5 Asian total corners in Charlton v Gillingham
1pt 1.9 bet365

There have been a lot of corners in some of Charlton’s home games this season: 17 when they played Fleetwood, 15 when they played Rochdale, 13 when they played Accrington, 11 when they played Doncaster, Oxford and Plymouth.

And there have been a lot of corners in some of Gillingham’s away games: 17 when they played Accrington, 14 when they played Ipswich, 12 when they played Plymouth and Wigan, 11 when they played Crewe.

All those makeups were over 10.5. And there is no reason why there should not be more than 10.5 corners today when Charlton and Gillingham meet in League One at The Valley. But it is still possible that bet365 have underestimated the prospect of a lower total. Back under 10.5 Asian total corners at decimal odds of 1.9, equivalent to fractional odds of 1.9.

Six of Charlton’s League One home games have produced more than 10.5 corners, but six have produced fewer. Admittedly this still means that the make-up has gone over the line as often as it has under, and does not on its own suggest there is value for money in backing under at a shade of odds-on. But having even that many high totals may have been unusual, and they might not occur as frequently in the future.

Five of Gillingham’s away games surpassed 10.5 corners, but the other seven did not.

There have been more corners per game this season in League One than in either of the other divisions in the EFL – and also more than in the Premier League. There is no obvious reason why this should be so, and it may have happened by accident and might not be repeated over the rest of the season.

The chance of a low corners make-up can vary with the type of game. The greater the anticipated difference in ability between two teams, as a general rule, the smaller the chance of a low corners makeup. Charlton are clear favourites to win this match, which seems right, but not to an extent that should make corners expectations significantly different than in many other matches.

A high total has occurred before several times in Charlton's and Gillingham's games, and another one may occur today, but the chance of a low total may be better than the odds anticipate.

Thought for the week

To score a team have to shoot – unless they are gifted an own-goal. To shoot they nearly always have to get the ball into or near the opposition penalty area. Doing this is a useful intermediate stage.

I have said before that what differentiates successful teams from unsuccessful teams in the Champions League is not so much that they have more possession but that the extra possession is in the attacking third.

With the knockout phase starting next week I looked through the stats on Uefa’s website from this season’s group phase, and put them together with others I have kept from the previous three seasons. They lend more weight to this argument.

A team can win the ball in the final third. If they do not, they have to dribble or pass it there. Uefa count runs with the ball into the final third and passes into the final third. Here are some numbers from the past four group phases.

Teams who won their group moved the ball into the attacking third on average 63 times per match. Teams who finished second did so on average 56 times per match, teams who finished third 46 times and teams who finished last 40 times.


Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE


MORE FREE BETS


Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Published on 12 February 2021inFootball tips

Last updated 16:06, 12 February 2021

iconCopy