World Cup top goalscorer: Five market leaders and five outsiders to note in a lively Golden Boot market

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Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe are the pre-eminent goalscorers of their generation and their talents were on full display as they each scored in both legs of an absorbing Champions League quarter-final between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.

Last week’s second leg in Munich was just the fourth time the Englishman and Frenchman have faced off against each other, with Kane netting five times in those four matches and Mbappe scoring twice.

The pair could be on another collision course this summer as they look to lead their teams to World Cup glory, with the deadly duo heading the top goalscorer market.

They are the last two winners of the award, with Kane taking home the title in 2018 before Mbappe claimed it in 2022, so it makes sense to start any consideration of this market with the superstar pair.

However, with the expanded field at this year’s World Cup, targeting the weaker groups where players can make hay could be crucial to finding a value selection in what is an intriguing Golden Boot market.

The market leaders

Kylian Mbappe 6-1

The outstretched leg of Emi Martinez was the only thing between glory and despair for Kylian Mbappe at the 2022 World Cup as his hat-trick in the final against Argentina proved in vain.

The French superstar scored eight goals in Qatar and edges favouritism to be the leading scorer in North America this summer at a general 6-1.

Les Bleus look set for a deep run in the tournament but their group is not the most straightforward, with Senegal, who were controversially stripped of the Afcon title, a power-packed Norwegian side featuring Erling Haaland and an Iraq team led by the shrewd coaching double act of Graham Arnold and Rene Meulensteen.

While Mbappe is the rightful favourite, there are easier groups out there for players to rack up early goals.

Harry Kane 7-1

Harry Kane is a best-priced 7-1 to top the goalscoring charts and, considering his form for Bayern Munich this season, he has an excellent chance to become the first player to win the accolade twice in their career.

Five goals against Tunisia and Panama were crucial to the England captain winning the Golden Boot in 2018 and Kane will no doubt be licking his lips at the prospect of facing the Panamanians again in Group L.

Croatia and Ghana round out the section, so it is not a given that Thomas Tuchel’s men will waltz through to the knockout rounds, although England’s struggles without Kane against Uruguay and Japan last month only went to reiterate, if it were needed, how central the 32-year-old is to the Three Lions’ chances.

Argentina's triumph at the 2022 World Cup was Lionel Messi's crowning gloryCredit: Getty Images

Lionel Messi 12-1

While he has won the Golden Ball award for the best player at a World Cup twice, Lionel Messi has never finished as top scorer, although he did score seven times to finish second to Mbappe in 2022.

A group containing Algeria, Austria and Jordan is fairly straightforward and the Argentinian legend will fancy his chances of racking up a decent haul.

Erling Haaland 14-1

Following another remarkable Premier League season with Manchester City, Erling Haaland will embark on his first World Cup campaign this summer.

The Norway striker has scored 55 goals in 49 appearances for his country but a group featuring Senegal, France and Iraq is potentially tricky.

Lamine Yamal 16-1

Lamine Yamal announced himself on the international stage at Euro 2024, winning the Young Player of the Tournament and claiming the most assists.

The 18-year-old has scored six goals for his country but Spain have landed in one of the easier groups, taking on Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, so Yamal can be confidently backed to increase his international tally.

The dark horses 

While the big names have dominated the Golden Boot market at recent World Cups,  the top-goalscorer award has gone to some unheralded, big-priced contenders previously.

With the expanded format in the United States, Canada and Mexico, it may be worth considering some players further down bookmakers’ lists.

Joao Felix 125-1

Portugal were one of the big winners of December’s World Cup draw as Roberto Martinez’s men landed in a soft-looking section alongside DR Congo, Uzbekistan and Colombia.

While Cristiano Ronaldo is an obvious starting point, it would be foolish to discount Joao Felix, who has been scoring goals for fun in the Saudi Pro League and could play anywhere across the Portuguese forward line.

Lennart Karl 100-1

Despite being only 18, Lennart Karl has already made a big impression for Bayern Munich this season and the youngster could be another player to benefit from the tournament’s expansion.

Four-time winners Germany could easily fill their boots against debutants Curacao, Ecuador and the Ivory Coast, and Karl could take any chance he is given by Julian Nagelsmann.

Former Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez enjoyed a productive qualifying campaign for UruguayCredit: Getty Images

Darwin Nunez 100-1

After scoring five goals for Uruguay in qualifying, Darwin Nunez could be set for a big finals.

A clash with Spain will obviously be tough, but matches against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are much kinder for the Uruguayans and Nunez could profit.

Arda Guler 150-1

Another youngster who has had a standout club season, Arda Guler will be crucial to Turkey’s chances of making an impact at just their second World Cup.

A group featuring the USA, Paraguay and Australia could have been worse and Guler scored against the US in a friendly last summer.

Ayase Ueda 150-1

Japan could prove to be one of the surprise packages this summer and there are not many strikers who have scored more goals in Europe this season than Ayase Ueda, who has been banging them in for Feyenoord.

The Samurai Blue have a tricky section – they play Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia – but Ueda has scored 16 goals in 38 internationals and cannot be ignored.

Read more on the World Cup:

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First Impressions: Aaron Ashley puts the spotlight on the four nations making their World Cup debuts this summer 

Focusing on the five favourites for the 2026 World Cup 

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