'There is no other way of spinning it – Haaland is as dangerous as the statistics suggest'

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The build-up to England’s World Cup round-of-16 meeting with Mexico was dominated by the co-hosts’ supposed 12th man – the Estadio Azteca.

The altitude, atmosphere and El Tri’s formidable record in Mexico City were all cited as reasons Thomas Tuchel’s side would suffer, and suffer they did.

In one of the most enthralling England matches in living memory, the Three Lions battled their surroundings and a fired-up Mexico side to win 3-2, delighting the 9.1 million people who prioritised national pride over their sleep.

Few who stayed up would argue that it was not worth it, even if, like me, you are still suffering the consequences almost a week later.

But the main threat to England’s hopes of reaching the semi-finals is not an 87,000-capacity stadium more than 2,000 metres above sea level. It is a 6ft 5in striker born in Leeds.

Erling Haaland’s brace against Brazil took his tally to seven in four World Cup games and leaves him on a 14-game scoring streak for Norway in which he has scored a frightening 27 goals.

I wrote a piece before the Mexico game contextualising some of the stats and facts bandied around about the fearsome Azteca, but, unfortunately for England fans, the data is not as favourable when it comes to weighing up the threat of the seemingly unstoppable Haaland.

The first thing Haaland’s detractors like to raise is that he is a flat-track bully, an opinion reinforced by a five-goal haul against minnows Moldova last year.

Admittedly, 38 per cent of his international goals have come against teams ranked outside the top 100. And they have come at a rapid rate of 1.64 goals per game.

However,  you can only play what’s in front of you and Haaland is capable of hurting pretty much any team in front of him.

He has scored the winning goal in all of his four appearances at the World Cup and his goals-per-game record across all levels is remarkable.

Haaland’s double against Brazil means he has scored five goals in five meetings with top-ten-ranked nations and he has 15 in 16 appearances against those in the top 25.

These goals have been far from inconsequential, too, as 25 of his international goals have either opened the scoring or given Norway the lead. Interestingly, he has never scored an equaliser for the Vikings.

Norway have won more than 80 per cent of the games in which Haaland has scored, a figure that drops to just 27 per cent when he plays but does not find the net.

By comparison, England have still won almost half the games in which Harry Kane has played but not scored, reinforcing the notion that Kane is a more well-rounded team player than his opposite number.

But is that true? Often pigeonholed as a pure goalscoring force, Haaland has a commendable 24 assists in his three seasons at Manchester City and registered more assists than Kane this term. He has also created six chances for his Norway teammates this tournament, two more than Kane.

Unfortunately for England fans, there is no other way of spinning it: Haaland is as dangerous as the statistics suggest.

Not wanting to dash the hopes of the nation, England have plenty of their own dangermen, led by the talismanic Kane. Like Haaland, Kane is his nation’s record goalscorer and while he has not been quite as prolific as Haaland, his importance cannot be overstated.

The Bayern Munich striker has also drawn criticism for being a flat-track bully, but he has 36 combined goals and assists in 55 meetings with top-25 nations and an incredible 48 per cent of his goals have either put England ahead or levelled the scores.

The broader opponent-quality picture also favours Kane. His England goals have come against opponents with a median Fifa ranking of 55 to Haaland’s 73.5, while England’s average ranking advantage in those games was 36.32 places compared to Norway’s 58.62.

As important as Kane and Jude Bellingham are to England, the most difficult job of the evening will fall to whoever lines up in the heart of the Three Lions’ defence.

Marc Guehi and John Stones know Haaland well from their time together at Manchester City, although the Norwegian terrorised Guehi when he was a Crystal Palace player. He scored a hat-trick against Guehi’s Eagles in just the second game of his City career and went on to score seven goals in five meetings against him.

Ezri Konsa has fared much better, conceding just once in five league meetings with Haaland, which should give the Aston Villa man some confidence.

Make no mistake, the numbers paint an intimidating picture and any notion that Haaland is an overrated threat should be dismissed immediately. Norway have the most destructive out-and-out striker in world football, but England’s own quality should not be forgotten.

Kane may not match Haaland for pure international goalscoring prowess, but his ability to drop deep, link play and combine with the world-class Bellingham gives England multiple routes to goal.

Mexico had not conceded a World Cup goal until England hit them for three at the Azteca. Norway have already shipped nine and were only saved from conceding more against Brazil by the outstanding Orjan Nyland.

As he often does, Haaland may well have his say in Miami, but England have enough firepower of their own to seal a place in the final four.

Read more on the World Cup:  

Norway vs England: Vikings set to be vanquished

Norway vs England World Cup Bet Builder tips, picks and odds

Argentina vs Switzerland: Solid Swiss can stand firm

Lars Sivertsen: World Cup clash will intensify Norway's obsession with English football

Oliver Barnard: Overpriced beers, Wonderwall and Harry Kane – following England across America

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