After early exits at the last two World Cups, can Germany be written off again?

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In 2014, Germany became the first European team to win a World Cup in the Americas, thrashing hosts Brazil 7-1 in the semi-finals before a 1-0 extra-time victory against Argentina.

This summer, though, Die Mannschaft cross the Atlantic in hope rather than expectation. They are 14-1 to lift the trophy – more than twice the price of the leading European contenders Spain, France and England.

Brazil, Argentina and Portugal are also ahead of them in the outright betting so should punters ignore the old adage about never writing off the Germans?

Their qualifying campaign started with a shock 2-0 defeat in Slovakia but they won their five subsequent matches against the Slovaks, Northern Ireland and Luxembourg.

Julian Nagelsmann's men are 1-33 to qualify from Group E, in which they face Ecuador, Ivory Coast and Curacao, but their tournament record since 2014 is underwhelming.

Die Mannschaft desperate to forget recent campaigns

Germany's primary objective this summer is to avoid a group-stage exit – the fate they have suffered at the last two World Cups.

Their trophy defence in 2018 was the worst German campaign in Russia since ... well, let's not go down that route. 

Anyway, they finished bottom of Group F, losing to Mexico and South Korea either side of a last-gasp 2-1 win over Sweden.

Germany lost 2-1 to Group E winners Japan in their 2022 opener and they were pipped to second place in the section by Spain.

They failed to cash in on home advantage at Euro 2024, less than a year after Nagelsmann was appointed. 

A 5-1 opening-night rout of Scotland was the highlight for the hosts, who were fortunate to get past Denmark in the round of 16 before an extra-time defeat to champions Spain in the quarter-finals. 

The Germans qualified for last summer's Nations League finals, beating Italy 5-4 on aggregate in a chaotic last-eight tie.

However, a 2-1 semi-final defeat to Portugal was followed by a 2-0 loss to France in the third-place playoff, underlining the gap between Germany and the best sides in Europe.

Captain Kimmich in an awkward position

A traditional nugget of cricketing wisdom is that 'a strong Yorkshire means a strong England' but does the same apply to Bayern Munich and the German national team?

Vincent Kompany's Bayern have been outstanding this season, smashing Bundesliga goalscoring records and knocking out Real Madrid on their way to the Champions League semi-finals.

But the undisputed stars of their campaign are England striker Harry Kane, France international Michael Olise and Colombian winger Luis Diaz.

Two of their most senior German players, Leon Goretzka and Joshua Kimmich, both featured in the forgettable 2018 and 2022 World Cup campaigns.

Kimmich's situation illustrates the discrepancy between Bayern's winning machine and the more faltering national team.

The Germany captain plays in his favoured defensive-midfield role at club level. For the national team, though, he generally starts at right-back, as he did in March's friendlies against Switzerland and Ghana.

Nagelsmann is undoubtedly short of experienced, top-class defenders but is Kimmich, one of the world's best holding midfielders, the smartest choice to plug the gap?

Germany must find right balance in attack 

Coaching wunderkind Nagelsmann was replaced as Bayern Munich manager by Thomas Tuchel in March 2023 and both men face similar selection issues at the World Cup.

Like England boss Tuchel, Nagelsmann's talent pool is dominated by wingers and attacking midfielders. 

Liverpool's Florian Wirtz was superb in last month's 4-3 friendly win in Switzerland, setting up Germany's first two goals and scoring twice himself.

Experienced winger Leroy Sane also started against the Swiss and Nagelsmann is desperate for Jamal Musiala to recapture his best form in time for the finals.

Musiala made Uefa's Euro 2024 Team of the Tournament but suffered a serious ankle injury while playing for Bayern at last summer's Club World Cup.

His absence for most of the season opened the door for brilliant teenager Lennart Karl, who made his Germany debut last month.

Karl, like his teammate Aleksandar Pavlovic and Borussia Dortmund midfielder Felix Nmecha, has only recently returned from injury but this week Serge Gnabry, yet another Bayern star, was ruled out of the World Cup.

Nagelsmann faces striking conundrum

Whereas Tuchel can ink in record goalscorer Kane as England's striker, Nagelsmann is less sure about his leading man.

Kai Havertz, Nick Woltemade and Stuttgart's Denis Undav were the three strikers named in last month's squad.

Arsenal's Havertz has had significant hamstring and knee injuries in the past 12 months and Woltemade's form has cooled so much that he is no longer starting regularly for Newcastle.

Nagelsmann played Havertz as a wing-back early in his Germany reign and, after nearly three years of tinkering and experimenting, his team still looks like a work in progress.

Hoffenheim's Oliver Baumann has established himself as first-choice goalkeeper after Manuel Neuer's international retirement and Marc-Andre ter Stegen's form and fitness problems.

In front of Baumann, however, the outlook is far less clear. The defence lacks a commanding presence, several key creative players are racing to prove their fitness and there are serious reservations over the strikers. 

So is it time to write off the Germans? Not quite, but their World Cup odds look pretty skinny compared with improving rivals such as Switzerland, who are 80-1, and 100-1 shots Turkey.

Read more on the World Cup:

World Cup top goalscorer: Five market leaders and five outsiders to note

James Milton picks out five star players who should arrive at the World Cup feeling fresh

World Cup dark horses: Five teams who can outperform their massive odds this summer

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