World Cup Golden Boot predictions: Why Kane can finish as top goalscorer

Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources or find out more here

This article is from the Racing Post World Cup betting guide which was published on Tuesday, June 9  

2026 World Cup top goalscorer best bets

Harry Kane top World Cup goalscorer
1.5pts each-way 7-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Julian Alvarez top World Cup goalscorer
1pt each-way 28-1 bet365, Hills

Folarin Balogun top World Cup goalscorer
0.5pt each-way 100-1 general

Kane can show age is no barrier to success

Croatia striker Davor Suker holds the record as the oldest World Cup Golden Boot winner but his special status may soon pass to Harry Kane, who looks a solid bet to top the scoring charts this summer. 

Suker was 30 when his six-goal haul at France 1998 played a crucial role in helping Croatia to reach the World Cup semi-finals for the first time. But football has changed in modern times with several players maintaining peak performance well into their thirties. 

There were strong performances from veterans at Qatar 2022 with Lionel Messi, 35, finishing second on the scoring charts with seven goals during Argentina’s charge to the title and French forward Olivier Giroud, 36, claiming joint-third place with four goals for the losing finalists. 

Messi will celebrate his 39th birthday during this summer’s tournament, but he remains prominent in the top goalscorer betting at 14-1, as does Portuguese icon Cristiano Ronaldo, who gets a respectful 20-1 quote at the age of 41.

Only market leader Kylian Mbappe and Kane are a shorter price than Messi and there are solid reasons for favouring a bet on England’s captain.

Kane had his first taste of World Cup football at Russia 2018 and walked away with the Golden Boot after scoring six goals in six appearances. 

He was less effective at Qatar 2022, contributing two goals and three assists, and attracted some criticism at Euro 2024 where he scored three times and often looked short of full match sharpness. However, doubts about the Bayern Munich striker’s staying power have been removed over the past two seasons with goals flowing regularly for club and country.

Kane contributed eight of England’s 22 goals in qualifying and he warmed up for this summer’s event with 61 club goals in all competitions, topping the Bundesliga scoring charts with 36 and finishing second to Mbappe in the Champions League with 14. 

His main aim for this summer is to win the World Cup, but scoring goals is always an obsession and he has every chance of fending off the competition.

Alvarez a value option to get among the goals

Mbappe is aiming to be the first player to win back-to-back Golden Boots, but his build-up to the tournament has been less convincing than Kane’s. 

The Real Madrid star topped La Liga’s scoring charts for a second successive season but only two of his 25 goals came within the final three months of the campaign. 

Mbappe will be keen to get back to his best but France have been handed a tricky draw featuring group matches against Senegal and Norway, and their passage through the knockout rounds could include a heavyweight clash against Germany in the last 16.

Les Bleus are far from certain to go deep and an early exit would reduce the chances of personal glory for Mbappe. Argentina appear to have a safer route through to the later rounds and that could benefit Messi and Julian Alvarez, who are likely to be their most reliable sources of goals. 

It is hard to write off Messi, who was the leading scorer in South American qualifying with eight goals. However, an expanded World Cup means a potential eight games in 34 days for the veteran, who is likely to need more assistance than was the case four years ago, and Alvarez could make a suitable contribution. 

The Atletico Madrid forward has had a strange season, scoring more goals in the Champions League (ten) than in La Liga (eight). 

However, he is clearly a big-match player and could score plenty in the group stage where Argentina should be far too strong for Algeria, Austria and Jordan. The holders will be determined to retain the trophy and Alvarez’s expert finishing and movement could be one of their biggest assets.  

Balogun could become an American hero

Five Golden Boot winners have claimed the award while representing a host nation and there may be an opportunity for USA striker Folarin Balogun to make a big impression this summer. 

Balogun was a highly-rated youngster in Arsenal’s academy, but had to leave London to get the game-time he sought. He flourished for Monaco this season, scoring 19 goals across all competitions, and looks set to start the World Cup as USA’s first choice centre-forward. 

The pacy 24-year-old is playing with confidence and could score plenty of goals for the Stars & Stripes, who have landed a favourable draw and look ready to surpass expectations.

Want more top football betting advice? Make sure you take a look at Racing Post Sport's tips for more of the latest picks from our experts.

FAQs

When is the 2026 World Cup?

The 2026 World Cup takes place from Thursday June 11 to Sunday. July 19.

Where is the 2026 World Cup being played?

The tournament is being played in the United States, Mexico and Canada, with the final taking place at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

Where can I watch the 2026 World Cup?

All World Cup matches will be shown the game live in the UK on the BBC or ITV channels.

Who are the favourites for the 2026 World Cup?

Spain are 9-2 favourites followed by France at 5-2 and England at 7-1.

Read more World Cup predictions from our top tipsters:

2026 World Cup tournament winner predictions, betting tips and odds

Player of the Tournament predictions, betting tips and odds

Groups A to F predictions, betting tips and odds

Groups G to L predictions, betting tips and odds

WATCH: The Ultimate World Football Preview Show with Mark Langdon and pro punter Nick Goff

'I’m full of respect for what Tuchel is doing with this England group' – Didi Hamann's World Cup verdict

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.