Kevin Pullein predictions and free football betting tips

Where to watch

Villarreal v Real Sociedad
Viaplay Sports 2, 5.30pm Sunday

Best bet

Villarreal -0.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.9 bet365

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Kevin Pullein's best bet

Back Villarreal to take most corners at home to Real Sociedad in La Liga on Sunday.

Bet365 offer Villarreal -0.5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.9, equivalent to a fractional price of 9-10. If Villarreal take most corners the bet will win, otherwise it will lose.

Villarreal v Real Sociedad is sixth versus fourth in La Liga. After 26 games Villarreal have 41 points, Real Sociedad 48. The away team may have slightly more ability but the home team have ground advantage.

Odds in result-related markets imply a 40 per cent chance of a home win, a 30 per cent chance of a draw and a 30 per cent chance of an away win. I think those percentages are about right.

Normally in such a game fair decimal odds about the home team taking most corners would be shorter than 1.9. If a team are favourites to score most goals they will usually be favourites to takes most corners – and because there are nearly always more corners than goals, ties are rarer for corners than goals.

Real Sociedad this season have done even better away than at home. In away games they have had more possession, scored more goals, conceded as few, and gained more points. They have also taken more corners and defended fewer.

This is out of the ordinary, for them or anybody else. It could carry on, for a long time or just a little while. However, if we factor in the likelihood that the unusualness will become smaller over time I believe it is possible that the chance of Villarreal taking most corners on Sunday may still be better than the odds envisage.

Thought for the week

Not Manchester City or Liverpool. Not Manchester United or Arsenal. Not even Newcastle. The team near the top of the Premier League I find most interesting are Tottenham.

Every time I hear about them I am told they are underachieving. Every time I study them I think they are overachieving.

I was not surprised when Tottenham sacked Antonio Conte. I was not surprised when they sacked Jose Mourinho. I had not been surprised when Tottenham offered them a job. I was surprised only that such high-profile managers accepted.

They were probably attracted by the line that Tottenham should be achieving even more. And that was because they thought they were the manager who could make the difference.

Across the last 11 seasons for which all accounts have been published, Tottenham’s payroll represented 5.5 per cent of the Premier League total. Some seasons it was a bit more, other seasons a bit less, but never by much. Clubs with that sort of payroll average about 60 points. Most seasons Tottenham have gained more. They probably will this season. Tottenham have overachieved relative to their budget.

Of course there is the argument that Tottenham should be signing higher-earning players to get even better results. Over those 11 seasons Tottenham rose in the Deloitte Football Money League from places in the middle teens to regulars in the top ten. The Money League ranks clubs by revenue. Income has grown faster for Tottenham than for some clubs around the world. However, wages have grown as fast. Income has doubled, so have wages.

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