The teams who could astonish us by going all the way to the FA Cup final

Will there be a surprise team this year in the FA Cup – and, if so, who might it be?

Nobody would be surprised if one of the Big Six win. Most years they do. But sometimes a team from outside that elite group get to the final. And every once in a while they lift the trophy. What links these surprises – a little or a lot?

Twenty-three times in the last 25 years the FA Cup was won by Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City or Manchester United. Ten times one of those teams lost in the final – nine times to another. So 33 of the last 50 finalists came from Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United.

Tottenham are the other members of the Big Six. They won the FA Cup in the more distant past and could have won it again recently with a kinder roll of the ball.

These half-dozen teams are by far the most likely winners this year. They are the current elite of English football. Not all of them, admittedly, would have been considered elite teams 25 years ago.

If 33 of the last 50 FA Cup finalists came from inside the Big Six then 17 must have come from outside. Over the past quarter-century, two-thirds of FA Cup finalists were teams that we now call elite and one-third were teams that we do not.

Who were those non-elite finalists? Two came from the Championship – Cardiff and Millwall. Fifteen came from the Premier League – Aston Villa twice, Newcastle twice, Portsmouth twice, Crystal Palace, Everton, Hull, Middlesbrough, Southampton, Stoke, Watford, Wigan and West Ham once.

Portsmouth and Wigan won once. Portsmouth beat Championship Cardiff, Wigan beat a Premier League elite team in Manchester City.

Cardiff were 11th in the Championship after their last game before they played in the FA Cup third round. Millwall were tenth. So, mid-table. Other non-elite finalists had been positioned between sixth and 20th in the Premier League – as you will see in the table alongside.

None came from the top quarter of the table. Being non-elite teams, not many of them had been in the top quarter. More came from the second quarter than the third, and more from the third quarter than the fourth.

So higher-placed teams reached the final more frequently than lower-placed teams, but not much. Often there was not a lot of difference in ability between many of these teams. And to reach the final they had to knock out five opponents, four of whom were unknown when they heard of the first.

This season, it is worth saying, teams have played fewer league games before the FA Cup third round than in all but one of the previous 25 seasons.

The non-elite teams who seem most likely to reach the FA Cup final based on Premier League position are Leicester, Southampton, Everton, Aston Villa and West Ham – respectively third, sixth, seventh, eighth and tenth. Villa, though, have been drawn in the third round against Premier League leaders Liverpool.

The third-round draw does make a difference to a team’s chance of reaching the final. Only a small difference because if they get through there are still four more rounds to go. But it does make some difference because it influences the chance of reaching the fourth round. And reaching the fourth round obviously is an essential prerequisite to making any further progress.

Fifteen times in the past quarter-century a non-elite Premier League team reached the FA Cup final. Only three teams played in the third round against other Premier League opponents, just one of whom now belong to the Big Six. Twelve played opponents from the Championship or below.

Home advantage this year without fans might not help as it did in previous years with fans. But for the record, seven of the last 15 non-elite Premier League teams to reach the FA Cup final – almost half – played at home in the third round against opponents from outside the Premier League.

This year ten non-elite Premier League teams have been drawn against opponents from the Championship or below: Brighton, Burnley, Everton, Fulham, Leeds, Leicester, Sheffield United, Southampton, West Brom and West Ham. Three of those will play at home: Burnley, Everton and Southampton.

Teams for whom a Wembley appearance would not be a shock

Non-surprising FA Cup winners would be Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United or Tottenham. They are the richest clubs with the highest payrolls. They should have most of the best players.

They are the most likely winners this year. Only two other clubs have won in the last 25 years – Wigan in 2013 and Portsmouth in 2008.

Who from the Big Six might lift the trophy – or at least reach the final?

Even a Big Six team who have been out of sorts should be capable of stringing together five wins, which is what it takes to get to the final.

If they are far from the top of the table it is almost certainly because they have not met expectations and have achieved worse results than they should be capable of. Almost inevitably, then, things will get better at some point, in the league or in the FA Cup.

Over the last 25 years, however, there has been a relationship for Big Six teams between position in the Premier League when they played in the third round of the FA Cup and reaching the final. As there was for other Premier League teams – and as you can also see on the accompanying table.

Twenty-seven of the 33 Big Six finalists came from the top quarter of the Premier League, six from the second quarter, and none from the bottom half.

This does not mean that Arsenal cannot reach the final. They are 11th in the Premier League and last year they went from tenth to win the FA Cup. But it does suggest there are better prospects currently closer to the top of the Premier League.

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