Premier League teams are better off out of the FA Cup

Title hopefuls and relegation battlers may be wondering whether a cup run is worth the hassle.

Manchester United play Liverpool in the FA Cup fourth round on Sunday and both sets of supporters will be asking if their teams are better off out of it so they can concentrate on a title challenge.

To try to answer the question objectively, let's look at the seven seasons from 2012-13 to 2018-19 to see how Premier League teams who made the FA Cup semi-finals performed compared to those who did not.

Why seven seasons? Last season was not included due to disruption and there is a limit in how far back data goes, but interestingly, 2012-13 was also the season Wigan won the FA Cup but still got relegated in 18th.

Using closing prices to get expected points in 1,878 league games played within seven days of the FA Cup fifth round until the end of that season, teams who did not make the semi-final performed 0.05 points per game (PPG) better.

That does not sound like much but, come the end of the season - over 15 games - that is worth an expected additional 0.75 points.

Before we look at the impact this has on, say United’s title chances, it is important to acknowledge two things:

Firstly, the method used was based on actual closing prices which may have accounted for team news. If teams who made the semi-final rested players in league games for better cup performances, then this made closing prices bigger, reducing expected points totals and, more crucially, actual points totals.

Secondly, this is a small sample size looking at only one variable. There is context for every closing price, every game, every team, every season that is not accounted for in this method.

This is just to try an answer the question with some objectivity. Fans will say you aim to win every game otherwise what is the point in playing. Also, a team with a squad like United's might see no significant difference in expected points total as opposed to say Sheffield United, whose bones are bare at the moment.

Targeting the cup could cost Sheffield United more than just the expected 0.75 points. I believe overall that the method underestimates the 0.75 expected points difference and it will be exacerbated in this congested campaign.

In this season of all seasons, unless you win the cup, you do not want those extra games either. Time away from the training field, having to travel instead of resting and in this case, three games in seven days as opposed to two because you will probably play a fired-up West Ham in the next round.

For the purpose of illustration, let us imagine making the semi-final will cost you just one league point.

A long run in the cup reduces Sheffield United's chances of staying up by 1.2 per cent to just five per cent. They are unlikely to stay up regardless, so maybe their fans would throw all their eggs at cup glory.

An FA Cup run, reduces Tottenham's top-four chances by more than five per cent. For Jose Mourinho maybe winning something this season matters more than next year’s Champions League money, but it would be interesting to see what Daniel Levy thinks.

In those seven seasons, four Championship teams made the FA Cup semi-finals, but none won promotion, or the cup.

Brentford have possibly already lost out on some points this season with their unsuccessful run to the League Cup semi-final. Shrewd owner Matthew Benham will know better than any of us how to weigh this all up with the heart and head.

As a fan he would love a cup, but if there is a chance it reduced Brentford’s total by even just one point and therefore their promotion chances by 3.4 per cent, is it worth it?

Then there is the Premier League title battle for which we will assume Manchester City, who head to Cheltenham, will have a deep run, and these estimates are before Thursday's clash between Liverpool and Burnley.

Sunday's big clash is not quite a traditional six-pointer but if United go through then it is expected to mean minus 0.75 points for them, or minus 0.75 points for Liverpool. That 1.5-point swing could be vital at the end of the season.

If United win they drop to just an 11 per cent chance of league glory, but if they lose they go up to a 15 per chance of being champions in my book.

Liverpool's swing is even bigger, ranging from 15 per cent to 20 per centy. I can see why Jurgen Klopp might not be fussed about the magic of the cup.

Unlike many other clubs, United know what winning the cup is all about and it did not save Louis van Gaal.

You may not agree, but as a United fan, part of me would be okay with losing this weekend and I’ll pass on the cup juice just for that additional four per cent chance that it will be the league title Ole and the boys are squeezing come May.

Bookmakers will be slow to update the league ante-post markets this weekend, so if your team is knocked out of the cup, maybe take some comfort in the potential ante-post value.

*Jason Murphy is a football odds-compiler for Paddy Power & Betfair

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