Early jockeying gets teams in position for rest of the Premier League race

Andy Gray said once that a team who start badly will probably spend most of the season near the bottom of the table. A team who start well, on the hand, could spend most of the campaign in relative comfort.

This Premier League season has now passed the one-third mark. Most teams have played 13 games out of 38. The die is not cast, but we can hazard a guess as to what it will show when it is.

Earlier this month I said that teams who were near the bottom of the table were likely to get better results over the rest of the season, but it might be hard for them to move out of the relegation zone or up into a position where they could relax because they had given the teams above them a head start. In some cases a big head start.

To overtake the runner in front of you in a race it is not enough simply to speed up. You have got to be travelling faster than they are, and even then they could cross the finishing line before you catch them.

The figures that follow come from the last 25 Premier League seasons – 1995-96 to 2019-20, every campaign completed since the number of teams was cut to 20.

Of the teams who were in the relegation zone after 13 games, 57 per cent went down. That is not a terrible omen. After all, 43 per cent stayed up.

Survival rates, though, varied with how far teams were below the relegation line. Of those who were no more than two points below 17th place – the lowest safe position – 48 per cent stayed up. Of those who were between three and six points below 17th place, 38 per cent stayed up. None of those more than six points adrift stayed up.

What of the teams who were above the relegation line after 13 games? Of those who were up to three points above 18th place – the highest unsafe position – 28 per cent were relegated. Of those who were between four and six points above 18th place, ten per cent were relegated. No team more than six points above 18th place went down.

This does not mean that no team will ever go down if after 13 games they are more than six points from danger. Nor does it mean that no team will ever stay up if after 13 games they are more than six points from safety.

I am a big fan of looking at what has happened in similar situations in the past. But it is important to remember that what you see there is at best a guide to what will happen this time. You will never find a percentage that remains fixed forever. Any stat you have accumulated from previous seasons is liable to change once you have added this season when it is over.

At the top of the table there seem to have been more actual or potential changes of position than usual. All through a weekend – starting sometimes on the Friday night, and not ending sometimes until the Monday night – we hear where a team could be if they win. There is a simple explanation for this. Kick-off schedules have been even more spaced out than normal. Rarely have two games started at the same time. Wednesday was the first day three games started together.

Slightly more often than not, the team who were top after 13 games finished top – 14 teams out of 25, or 56 per cent.

As at the other end of the table, the chance of a team staying in the same position or moving into a better one depended on how far they were ahead or behind. Every team crowned champions after 38 games had been within eight points of top spot after 13 games. Again, this does not mean that no team can ever make up more ground, but it does suggest that might not happen often.

No team have won or lost after a third of the season, but where are they are now is likely to have a strong influence on where they will be after the other two-thirds.

Reds could cross the line in front

Let’s get a bit more personal and specific.

Liverpool are top of the Premier League, just three points ahead of Tottenham. You have to look into the bottom half of the table to find a team who are more than eight points adrift. So there are still plenty of plausible possibilities.

I do regard Liverpool as the most likely winners, though. My ratings give estimates for their final total that centre on 81 points. Next best I have Manchester City (who presently have a game in hand) finishing on 78 points. Then Tottenham and Chelsea both on 70 points.

A selection of the other highly placed teams who have already completed 13 games: my ratings give estimates that centre on 61 points for Leicester, 59 for Everton, 57 for Southampton, 55 for Wolves and 54 for West Ham.

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