Shots on target are rare events even for the best players in the Premier League

Erling Haaland hit two shots on target in his Premier League debut for Manchester City against West Ham. He is one of the most highly regarded forwards in the world. He played well and he scored two goals. But he did so with only two shots on target, and one of those was from the penalty spot.

The total was not unusual, for Haaland or for other leading strikers.

Lots of football bettors like player shots-on-target markets. Even the best players get fewer shots on target than you might have imagined.

Haaland averaged 1.6 shots on target for Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Playing for a better team, but in a stronger competition, he will do well to average as many as 2.0 for City in the Premier League.

Mohamed Salah for Liverpool has averaged 1.8 shots on target. Harry Kane for Tottenham has averaged 1.8 shots on target. Haaland in time may emulate the goalscoring for City of Sergio Aguero, who averaged 1.9 shots on target.

Those figures, incidentally, are per 90 minutes. Even the most influential starters do not always finish a match – and they may do so less regularly now that five substitutes are allowed.

Often shots-on-target markets require a player to have at least two. Some of the most highly rated strikers in world football have averaged fewer than two. How many might other sorts of players get?

Over the last ten completed seasons – 2012-13 to 2021-22 – Premier League teams averaged between four and five shots on target per match. As you would expect, good teams did better and bad teams did worse. Teams who finished top averaged six shots on target, teams who finished bottom averaged three shots on target.

City and Liverpool in recent seasons were exceptional even by the standards of good Premier League teams. Over the last four completed seasons – 2018-19 to 2021-22 – each of them averaged between six and seven shots on target per match.

Understand one thing, though, and remember another. Shots on target are incidents for which the average tends to be inflated by a few freakishly high occurrences. Numbers below the average tend to occur more often than numbers above the average.

And remember that the data given in the last few paragraphs was for teams, not individuals. Overall Premier League teams averaged between four and five shots on target per match. How many can you reasonably anticipate from one member, even it if is one who usually plays up front?

The more time the ball spends near a goal the likelier it is to go in

Watford manager Rob Edwards gave a nice, honest comment on Monday night after a 1-1 draw at West Bromwich in the Championship. He said: “It would have been pretty unjust if we had nicked that second goal from the penalty as Albion were up for it and were clearly the better side. But I’d have taken it.”

Watford went in front with a shot out of nothing from inside their own half and could have won with a penalty earned on a rare foray into the other half. Even a draw seemed unfair to West Bromwich.

Such things do happen. Usually, though, the ball goes in more often at the end where the ball is more often. As can be illustrated by figures from up to 12 completed seasons – 2010-11 to 2021-22 – in the Premier League.

Divide a pitch into three parts. How long was the ball in each third?

Overall the ball spent 44 per cent of matches in the middle third. This proportion hardly varied at all, no matter who was playing.

In games between teams who were evenly balanced the ball would have spent 44 per cent of the time in the middle, 28 per cent nearer one goal and 28 per cent nearer the other goal.

For teams who won the Premier League in the first seven seasons the ball spent 26 per cent of matches in their defensive third, 44 per cent in the middle third and 30 per cent in their attacking third – a difference of two per cent at either end.

Liverpool in recent seasons have besieged their opponents’ goal ruthlessly, even by the standards of top Premier League teams. In Liverpool’s games over the last four seasons the ball spent 23 per cent of the time in their defensive third, 44 per cent in the middle third and 33 per cent in their attacking third.

Manchester City, though, have penned in opponents for even longer. In City’s games over the last five seasons the ball spent just 20 per cent of the time in their defensive third, 44 per cent in the middle third and a huge 36 per cent in their attacking third.

And in City’s games, as in Liverpool’s games, the ball went in most often at the end where the ball was most often.

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