Wolves face a race against time to avoid the drop – here's what they need to do

It's clear that Wolves are in big trouble. 

They have taken just two points from ten Premier League games and the last five teams to have been as bad or worse have been relegated. Indeed, four of them have finished bottom.

Last Sunday's sacking of Vitor Pereira made it the fifth season in a row in which Wolves have changed their manager, so upheaval is nothing new for the perennial strugglers.

A change of tack has worked previously as Wolves have finished no lower than 16th and as high as tenth in that time, but things feel a little different this season.

They have already played the three promoted teams and lost to them all, and three of their other seven games were against sides who are currently in the bottom half.

Wolves have the worst attack and worst defence in the top flight, having scored just seven goals and conceded 22, and whoever takes over from Pereira has a monumental task to save a club who are 1-10 to be playing Championship football next season.

Goals a major issue

As with most teams battling it out at the wrong end of the table, goals have been a major issue for Wanderers. 

The summer departures of Matheus Cunha, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Goncalo Guedes, Pablo Sarabia and Nelson Semedo have left them scratching around to replace 24 of their 53 goals and 23 of their 42 assists from last season.

Jorgen Strand Larsen scored 14 times last season but after an injury the Norwegian has just one goal in eight Premier League appearances this term.

Just three teams have had fewer shots than Wolves's 102 and only Nottingham Forest have a worse conversion rate than their 6.86 per cent.

An expected goals (xG) per shot figure of 0.09, again the second-worst in the league, indicates that the Old Gold are also failing to create chances of any real quality.

Improving Wolves's output at attacking set-plays is one area the new man in charge should first address. Their 26 shots from such situations is the lowest in the division and only Aston Villa have created an inferior xG figure from set-pieces than their 1.97.

Stick with Johnstone between the sticks

Jose Sa and Sam Johnstone have been battling it out to be first-choice goalkeeper for the last 18 months and Pereira opted for the Portuguese stopper in four of the Wanderers' first five league games.

That turned out to be a disastrous decision. Sa conceded 11 goals from a post-shot xG figure of 7.1, indicating that the 32-year-old was responsible for conceding roughly half a goal more per game more than the baseline.

Johnstone has not been perfect either, but his -0.5 post-shot xG from six games is a major improvement on Sa's. 

Underlying numbers offer a ray of hope

One of the few positives for the next Wolves boss is that the underlying numbers suggest that the league table may be giving a false impression, to a small extent.

They are 15th in terms of xG difference and top-seven trio Bournemouth, Chelsea and Tottenham all have a worse xG against tally.

The Old Gold have conceded a nine goals more than xG models anticipate, partly because of poor goalkeeping but also due to some good finishing from their opponents.

Wolves have won the xG battle in four of their ten league games this season but taken just a solitary point from those matches.

A league-leading four errors leading to a goal has not been helpful, either.

Cutting out the errors, optimising attacking set-pieces and bringing in some more creativity in January should see them improve.

The worry for the Molineux faithful is that it could be too little too late come the new year.

Read more:

Rock-solid Arsenal on course for title triumph while Manchester United and Crystal Palace should kick on 

Irons show they have the will to beat the drop 

Cornering the market: How to profit from the Premier League set-piece craze 

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