Who will be top of the Premier League at Christmas?

The Premier League title race will have many more twists and turns between now and May but the fight to be number one at Christmas is going to be over quicker than you think.

The small matter of an autumn World Cup means that whoever is the top flight's top dog by close of play on November 12 will also be sitting atop the tree at Christmas.

And nine of the last 12 clubs to be in that position have gone on to win the title at the end of the season.

Arsenal, with a four-point edge over Manchester City and Tottenham, are 5-6 and that looks pretty generous given the cushion and the form they are in.

City do, it has to be said, look to have an easier run of matches before the league breaks up for the World Cup. And Spurs might seem easy to discount after their toothless loss at Manchester United on Wednesday but they are still third at the end of the day.

Arsenal – who, quirkily, have twice been top at Christmas in Premier League times but not in any of the three seasons in which they went on to be crowned champs – would immediately look at their next four fixtures before the break and think they should win three of them, starting at struggling Southampton on Sunday.

The obvious potential stumbling block is a trip to Chelsea, although they have won on their last two league visits to Stamford Bridge.

Nine points would probably be enough to be at the head of affairs by the time Santa arrives but they may need all nine as it's entirely plausible City – 5-4 shots for the Christmas number one accolade – will pick up a full house from their four outings.

We know Brighton are a stubborn side who Pep Guardiola has plenty of time for, and City's home tussle with the Seagulls is followed by a trip to Leicester then a pair of home bankers against Fulham and Brentford.

Crucially perhaps, three of their four matches are at the Etihad, while three of Arsenal's four are away from the Emirates.

Tottenham were an interesting challenger before their surrender at Old Trafford. And their set of fixtures looks the trappiest with Newcastle and Liverpool to come albeit both matches are at home and the Reds are hardly flying.

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