What will become of home advantage in the Premier League behind closed doors?

The Premier League resumes on Wednesday without fans in stadiums. Will they be missed, and in what way?

With stadiums full, a Premier League team playing opponents of equal ability would have a 44 per cent chance of winning at home, a 36 per cent chance of winning at a neutral venue and a 28 per cent chance of winning away. Their prospects of success would vary by up to 16 per cent depending on where the match took place.

With stadiums empty, will home advantage be the same, reduced, eliminated – or replaced by an away advantage?

What was the experience before Tuesday's games in other countries?

In Germany, Bundesliga away teams have achieved even better results since the lockdown without fans than home teams had achieved before the lockdown with fans. Before the break home teams had scored 54 per cent of all goals. Since the break away teams have scored 60 per cent of all goals.

But in Bundesliga 2 – something Bruce Millington drew attention to last week – home teams were doing better without fans than they did with fans. Confusing.

Since football returned in Spain home teams have scored one goal more than away teams in the Primera Division and two goals fewer in the Segunda Division. In Portugal, Denmark, Sweden and Turkey in restarted fixtures in the top divisions results have varied. Overall home teams have scored slightly fewer goals than away teams.

When there is a home advantage it can exist for one (or both) of two reasons. The first is that players perform differently according to the venue. The second is that referees are biased in favour of the hosts. Either way it is caused by the behaviour of participants on the pitch.

They might be influenced by spectators around the pitch. Players in the past seemed to feel that there were different expectations of them home and away. Will they feel the same now that they can no longer see or hear any supporters?

Sven-Goran Eriksson in the early 1980s was manager of Benfica. He said: “This was a team who played well at home, with a lot of courage, but as soon as they had an away game it was a different story. It seemed that in the Portuguese league the team had learned that by drawing away and winning at home they could win the league.”

Not only in Portugal have teams aimed to win at home and not lose away. If you change their environments – by keeping fans out – will you change their habits? Will players feel under as much pressure to win at home, will they sense a rare opportunity on away grounds where they have usually lost? To what extent, and for how long?

Outside England even now performance analysts will be going through pre-lockdown and post-lockdown data to identify what players have been doing differently, and coaches will be urging players to keep doing it away and stop doing it at home.

Nick the Greek was a well-known gambler in the United States around the middle of the last century. He used to say: “Scared money never wins anything.” Nick bet boldly. And lost everything.

Repeated research has shown that there is an inverse relationship between the confidence a person has in their opinion and its accuracy. The more certain a person is that they are right, the more likely they are to be wrong.

In a new situation about which there is scant and inconsistent information it must be best to exercise caution. On unfamiliar soil tread warily.

Say you are thinking of backing a home team. Assume at the very least that home advantage is no longer worth anything. Do you still think the price is good? If you do, take it. Any error in your assumption should work for you rather than against you.

Suppose you are thinking of backing an away team. Assume at the very least that home advantage is now worth almost as much as it was before. Do the odds still seem attractive? If they do, take them. Any error in your assumption should help you rather than hindering you. There is uncertainty. Turn it from an enemy into a friend.

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