Saturday's Premier League card, shot and assist predictions: Adams to test City

Free football tips, special bets and analysis for Wolves v Brentford, Man City v Southampton and Aston Villa v Everton in the Premier League on Saturday.

Where to watch

Wolves v Brentford BT Sport 12.30pm Saturday
Aston Villa v Everton Sky Sports Main Event, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bets

Joao Moutinho to make an assist
1pt 11-2 Betfair & Paddy Power

Che Adams to have a shot on target
2pts 23-20 Coral & Ladbrokes

James Ward-Prowse to have a shot on target
1pt 2-1 Coral & Ladbrokes

John McGinn to be shown a card
1pt 11-4 bet365

Betting preview

As Wolves’s general attacking output declined last year, so did Joao Mouthinho’s. The Portuguese midfielder registered just one assist in the 2020-21 campaign.

However, in the two seasons before that he notched nine and eight assists respectively in all competitions and seems to have been rejuvenated by the arrival of Bruno Lage. The 36-year-old has started all four games in the league and an EFL Cup tie under the new manager.

Moutinho has already accumulated an expected-assists total of 1.0 according to FBref.com and is responsible for corners and free kicks in Pedro Neto’s absence. He is 11-2 to register an assist against Brentford and that looks more than fair.

The odds-compilers don’t give Southampton much of a chance against Manchester City, but they may have underestimated two of the Saints’ attacking options.

Southampton had six shots on target at the Etihad last season and despite the presence of Danny Ings, Che Adams comfortably led Southampton in finding the target in the 2020-21 campaign with 31 to Ings’s 24 from an almost identical shot-count.

Adams was rested last week after a busy international period in which he played three times for Scotland. The striker has scored twice against Man City in his last three games and looks overpriced at 23-20 to have a shot on target.

Another Saints asset who looks overpriced for a shot on target is captain James Ward-Prowse. The ever-present midfielder is a free-kick and penalty specialist and has already accumulated three shots on goal so far this season. Odds of 2-1 look on the generous side.

In the late kick-off, John McGinn looks a big price to pick up a card, given that he led the Premier League in yellows last season. The Scot had already been booked once in three games and is 11-4 to land himself in the referee’s notebook once more.

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