Premier League relegation odds and predictions: Seven sides scrapping to survive

The Premier League campaign is only 11 games old but already four of the bottom five clubs have opted for a change of manager as the scrap for survival intensifies.

Daniel Farke and Dean Smith became the latest managerial casualties last weekend and it will be fascinating to see how their departures impact on Norwich and Aston Villa.

Watford and Newcastle were the first two clubs to twist, leaving Burnley standing alone as the only club in the bottom five to stick by their manager.

The Clarets are are hoping that continuity continues to be the best policy as they keep faith in long-serving boss Sean Dyche, but the others are gambling on change being for the better in what could be the closest relegation battle in years.

Norwich

Norwich have spent the last few season's yo-yoing between the Premier League and Championship but efforts to break this cycle manifested themselves in the ruthless sacking of Daniel Farke just hours after he had led them to their first victory of the season on Saturday.

The decision to remove Farke was almost certainly taken before the Canaries beat Brentford 2-1 but it may not have the desired effect due to a lack of quality on the pitch, rather than leadership, appearing to be the main problem.

Teemu Pukki continues to bear too much of the goalscoring burden, and Norwich's defensive record is the worst in the division.

Addressing both issues will be an expensive business and it is doubtful whether Norwich have the capacity to invest in the necessary January reinforcements.

Newcastle

Wild celebrations followed Newcastle's long-awaited takeover but it is far from certain that this season will have a happy ending.

Three matches on from Steve Bruce's departure, the Magpies are still searching for their first win of the season and Bruce's replacement, Eddie Howe, faces a crucial period with home matches against Brentford, Norwich and Burnley among his first four assignments.

A decent return from those games could give Newcastle a huge lift but their survival hopes will also be heavily dependent on moves in the January transfer market.

It is notoriously difficult to make substantial improvements in the winter window but Newcastle are sure to strengthen in all departments and should do enough to steer clear of trouble.

Burnley

Sean Dyche signed a new four-year contract in mid-September but he faces one of the biggest challenges of his Burnley tenure with the Clarets at serious risk of relegation.

Burnley can usually be relied upon to be spirited and well-organised and those qualities underpinned Saturday's dogged 1-1 draw at Chelsea.

However, their squad lacks quality despite the shrewd summer addition of lively attacker Maxwel Cornet, and it doubtful whether they can score enough goals to ensure survival.

Dyche won't panic and it is a sign of his team's competitive spirit that they are yet to lose a match by more than two goals this term - but the fine margins are often going against Dyche's side and that needs to change if they are to extend their top-flight stay into a seventh consecutive season.

Watford

The Premier League is a tough arena for newly-promoted teams and Watford are finding it difficult to re-establish themselves despite substantial efforts to strengthen over the summer.

Ten senior players - eight permanent signings and two loanees - have been brought in but key men Nathaniel Chalobah and Will Hughes departed and it is in midfield where Watford have struggled.

Another managerial change has been made with Claudio Ranieri replacing Xisco Munoz, and it will do Watford no harm to have such an experienced man in the dugout.

Ranieri has made one smart signing, picking up former Torino central defender Nicolas N'Koulou on a free transfer, but more additions will be needed to give the Hornets a chance of staying up.

Aston Villa

Of all the managerial departures this season, Aston Villa's decision to sack Dean Smith looks the most questionable.

Any manager would find themselves under pressure after five successive defeats but Smith should have had enough credit in the bank after steering Villa to promotion in 2018-19 and leading them to top-flight finishes of 17th and 11th.

Losing Jack Grealish was a hammer blow and Villa's big-money replacements for him, Emi Buendia and Leon Bailey, have struggled to make an impact.

Only Smith and the Villa board will know who was responsible for those deals but injuries have not helped their cause and the squad looks wafer thin with five players aged 20 or younger featuring on the bench for Friday's 1-0 defeat at Southampton.

A new manager faces a tough task and is by no means certain to steer Villa to safety.

Leeds

Leeds have not been outside of the bottom six at any point since a 5-1 loss at Manchester United on the opening weekend of the season and may need to steel themselves for a long season.

Recent performances have been encouraging with Marcelo Bielsa's side deservedly winning 2-1 at Norwich before bossing large parts of Sunday's 1-1 draw at home to Leicester.

But they have failed to make the most of some decent fixtures and it should be a concern that seven of their next eight games are against top-half teams.

Bielsa's boys do not fear anyone and may spring a few surprises but they need better luck on the injury front - including the swift return of star striker Patrick Bamford - if they are to climb the table.

Brentford

It is not so long ago that Brentford were being hailed as the season's surprise package but the Premier League is unforgiving and four straight defeats have got some of the Bees' fans worrying about a possible relegation battle.

Like any side the Bees rely on key players and injuries to talented goalkeeper David Raya and influential defender Kristoffer Ajer have been keenly felt.

However, Thomas Frank's side are still creating plenty of chances and have shown enough to suggest that they can establish themselves as a top-flight club.

Others at risk?

It is hard to look beyond the bottom seven clubs as the most likely relegation candidates.

Wolves, Crystal Palace and Southampton have recovered strongly from dodgy starts and perhaps the only one of those three who could potentially be looking over their shoulder are the Saints, who are struggling to score goals.

Adam Armstrong's winning goal against Aston Villa on Friday was a superb strike but it was only his second of the season and he needs to do the business on a more regular basis if Southampton are to enjoy a totally stress-free campaign.

Best relegation bet

Aston Villa
1pt 6-1 Betfair, Power

Verdict

The relegation scrap looks more open than the markets believe and Newcastle's impending spending spree could spell danger for several of the clubs above them - including Aston Villa, who look overpriced for the drop.

Villa's hierarchy are hoping that a change in the dugout will do the trick but their playing squad lacks depth and quality and another poor transfer window could see them pulled into the mire.

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