Passionate derbies tend to yield more draws than other fixtures

How do derbies differ from other games? They tend to have fewer goals, more draws and more cards.

There are two Premier League derbies this weekend: in north London between Arsenal and Tottenham on Saturday and in Manchester between City and United on Sunday. There is also an East Midlands derby on Monday between Leicester and Nottingham Forest. It is not the fiercest East Midlands rivalry, though.

By how much do derbies differ from other games? I studied derbies played in the Premier League over the last 25 completed seasons, 1997-98 to 2021-22.

I allowed only one derby for each club, so I included Arsenal v Tottenham but not Tottenham v West Ham. And I counted only games that I felt would be played as a derby by both sides, so I did not include Chelsea v Fulham but did include Fulham v QPR. There is always going to be some subjectivity when you talk about derbies.

My list comprised: Arsenal v Tottenham, Aston Villa v Birmingham, Blackburn v Burnley, Bolton v Wigan, Cardiff v Swansea, Charlton v Crystal Palace, Coventry v Leicester, Derby v Nottingham Forest, Everton v Liverpool, Fulham v QPR, Manchester City v Manchester United, Newcastle v Sunderland, Portsmouth v Southampton and West Bromwich v Wolves.

There were some big wins and high scores. City beat United 6-1. Aston Villa beat Birmingham, Newcastle beat Sunderland and West Bromwich beat Wolves 5-1. Liverpool beat Everton 4-0. Twice. There was a north London derby with nine goals, another with eight goals and two with seven goals. So anything could happen. Of course anything could happen – these were games of football.

Overall, though, derbies tended to be a bit lower than other games in goals and a lot higher in draws.

Other games averaged 2.7 goals, derbies 2.6. There were variations between derby fixtures, which may or may not be repeated if or when they are played again: Newcastle v Sunderland averaged 2.5 goals, Everton v Liverpool 2.4, Bolton v Wigan and Aston Villa v Birmingham 2.3.

The draw-rate in other games was 25 per cent, in derbies 31 per cent. Here, too, there were differences between derby fixtures that may or may not be reproduced. The draw-rate was 35 per cent for Newcastle v Sunderland, 36 per cent for Bolton v Wigan, 38 per cent for Arsenal v Tottenham and 40 per cent for Everton v Liverpool.

By the way, when I say Team A v Team B I am including games at both venues.

In bookings markets where each yellow counts as ten points and each red as 25 points the average make-up in non-derby Premier League games was 36 points. In derbies it was 48 points. Overall, make-ups in derbies were about one-third higher.

As with other things, there were variations between derby fixtures that may or may not be replicated. The average bookings points make-up was 55 between Newcastle and Sunderland, 54 between Liverpool and Everton, 52 between Arsenal and Tottenham.

Different derbies have different intensities, and these can change over time.

Until the 1970s Leicester against Nottingham Forest was a fiercer rivalry than Nottingham Forest against Derby. Twenty-five years ago the Manchester derby meant a lot more to City than United. Today it means as least as much to both sides, maybe a bit more to United. Twenty-five years ago United were a lot more successful than City. In recent years City have been more successful than United.

In any derby at any time there are a range of possibilities. Generally, though, derbies produce lower scores, more stalemates and more passion spilling over into disorder.

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