Newcastle aiming to continue improvement against Premier League title contenders

Only the Premier League's top two have picked up points at a quicker rate than Newcastle since New Year's Day and the Magpies could have a big say in the title race as they face both Liverpool and Manchester City in their next two fixtures.

Newcastle were joint-bottom of the table and winless after 11 games when Eddie Howe took over so to be clear of relegation worries with four games to go is quite an accomplishment.

Clearly, splashing out around £90m on Kieran Trippier, Chris Wood, Bruno Guimaraes, Dan Burn and the loan of Matt Targett would improve most teams in Newcastle's position.

However, Trippier started only four games before a season-ending injury, Guimaraes didn't make his full debut until March 10, and striker Wood has scored only twice.

That suggests the job Howe has done on the training ground, lifting the levels of players who were already at the club and improving the mood in the camp and atmosphere amongst the fans, has been just as important.

The accompanying graph and tables highlight the extent of the Magpies' improvement from the worst team in the division other than Norwich before Howe arrived to a side pushing into the top half, both in terms of the league table and the underlying stats.

The Eddie Howe effect

Former Bournemouth boss Howe had a reputation for producing teams who played attractive football but were leaky at the back so some pundits questioned his suitability for the job at Newcastle, who had conceded 24 goals in their first 11 games.

Things didn't improve immediately as they conceded 18 more in his first eight games. Since the January transfer window opened, though, Newcastle have let in more than one goal only once in 15 games, keeping six clean sheets in the process.

They have picked up ten wins in 15 league games since the turn of the year and their defensive stats are the third-best in the top flight during that period.

Newcastle's Premier League record since January 1, 2022

Burn, signed from Brighton, has got the best out of centre-back partner Fabian Schar and the underlying stats back up the results as the Magpies are restricting opponents to 12.5 shots per game under Howe (the sixth-best in the league) down from 16.1 (18th) in their opening 11 games.

Admittedly, they have played the easiest slate of games during that run and every team's stats would look much better if you take a sample of games which doesn't include fixtures against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal – Newcastle's next three opponents.

Looking at Howe's reign as a whole, therefore, is a more accurate representation of their progress and it will be interesting to see how they fare against Liverpool and City this time around since the January squad upgrade.

The Magpies lost the reverse fixtures 3-1 at Anfield and 4-0 at home to City shortly after Howe's arrival and the one blemish on their defensive record in 2022 was a 5-1 drubbing at Spurs.

More comfort can be gleaned from March's 1-0 defeat at Chelsea, where they restricted the Blues to eight shots and the only goal of the game came in the 89th minute.

While there are still question marks about how Newcastle will compete against the top sides, they have dealt with bottom-half teams impressively, helping them pull clear of the relegation zone.

Pre-Howe, they drew five and lost one of their six matches against bottom-half sides, taking an average of 0.83 points per game, and since his appointment they have notched nine wins and three draws from 13 such matches – an average of 2.3 points per game.

Six of those wins were by a single goal so turning those early-season draws into victories has been key.

Assessing Newcastle's Premier League prospects for next season is tough without knowing their summer transfer activity but the January signing of Guimaraes looks a serious signal of intent.

Thiago, Joshua Kimmich, Toni Kroos and Marco Verratti are the only regular starting midfielders across Europe's top five leagues who completed more progressive passes per game than Guimaraes did for Lyon this season.

His passing range hasn't been on display as much at Newcastle, as they tend to have less possession, but he has handled the step up to the Premier League, scoring four goals in seven starts and leading the side in tackles won and successful pressures per game.

Newcastle have clearly improved under their new manager, particularly since the January transfer window, although that upturn has coincided with a kind run of fixtures.

The Toon Army are fired up, having cheered on their team to six straight wins at St James' Park, and the hosts will hope to make life awkward for Liverpool, whose recovery time has been reduced by an early kick-off for their third game in six days.

That is tough for the Reds but, despite Newcastle's optimism, Liverpool's relentless form this season means they are only a slightly bigger price (4-9) than they were for the same fixture last season (3-10).

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