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Manchester City v Liverpool: Premier League betting markets in focus

Early goal could spark another heavyweight thriller

Kevin de Bruyne's penalty helped City establish a 3-0 half-time lead over Liverpool in July
Kevin de Bruyne's penalty helped City establish a 3-0 half-time lead over Liverpool in JulyCredit: Pool

Over/under 2.5 goals

Manchester City and Liverpool are not accustomed to humiliating defeats so City's 5-2 home defeat to Leicester and the Reds' 7-2 mauling at Aston Villa were major shocks.

The Citizens' four subsequent Premier League games have all featured under 2.5 goals and they needed two late strikes to wrap up a 3-0 win over Olympiakos in the Champions League in midweek.

Liverpool, missing defensive colossus Virgil van Dijk, have conceded in six of their seven league games this term but kept a clean sheet against a prolific Atalanta side in the Champions League.

That 5-0 win provided a reminder of the attacking class at Jurgen Klopp's disposal and over 2.5 goals on Sunday is no bigger than 4-9.

Seven of the last eight competitive meetings between the sides have featured at least three goals so City, who have scored only four times in their last four league matches, may need to be more incisive against the champions.

Time of first goal

Liverpool scored twice in the first 13 minutes against City at Anfield last November and Pep Guardiola's men were 3-0 up at half-time in the reverse fixture (after the Reds had wrapped up the title).

That continued a remarkable trend of early goals in this fixture since the start of the 2010-11 season. Only two of the last 20 league meetings were goalless at half-time (and in one of those Liverpool took the lead in the 51st minute).

The first goal has been scored in the 25th minute or earlier in 13 of those fixtures and in City's league matches this term the deadlock has been broken in the 20th, fourth, 17th, 23rd, 18th and 28th minutes.

Bet365's over/under line for the time of the first goal is 23:00 while Betway go 13-8 about a goal in the first 15 minutes, which has copped in nine of the last 20 league meetings. A goalless first half is 3-1.

First goalscorer

The depth of attacking talent on display makes this a treacherous betting heat but a couple of first-goalscorer prices stand out.

BoyleSports are offering 6-1 about Liverpool's top scorer and penalty-taker Mohamed Salah opening the scoring while bet365 dangle a quote of 10-1 about City's Ferran Torres notching first.

The young Spaniard has enjoyed a central attacking role recently with Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus sidelined.

If Jesus is still not fit enough to start then Torres, who has scored in all three of City's Champions League group games (twice rewarding his first-scorer backers), could be the value.

Player to be shown a card

The last five games between City and Liverpool at the Etihad have been fairly spicy encounters, producing 26 yellow cards and a red for Sadio Mane in 2017.

It may pay to focus on the midfield battle as Jordan Henderson, Rodri and Kevin de Bruyne were among the six players booked in last season's three meetings, including the Community Shield.

Liverpool's Georginio Wijnaldum went into the book in both of 2018-19's league meetings and is 6-1 with bet365 to be shown a card.

And City's Bernardo Silva, a 4-1 shot, has been booked twice in eight club appearances this term and picked up three yellow cards in his last five competitive games against Liverpool.


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