Manchester City v Brentford predictions: Classy Citizens could run riot

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Manchester City v Brentford in the Premier League on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 7.45pm Wednesday

Best bet

Manchester City to win & over 3.5 goals
1pt 11-10 Betfair

Team news

Manchester City
Gabriel Jesus remains a doubt and Cole Palmer is sidelined.

Brentford
Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are doubts and new signing Christian Eriksen is unlikely to make his debut. Julian Jeanvier, Zanka and Tariqe Fosu-Henry are all unavailable.

Match preview

With Liverpool playing on Thursday and Chelsea away on Club World Cup duties, Manchester City have the chance to establish a 12-point advantage at the Premier League summit when they face Brentford this week.

In their last league contest, the Citizens suffered a rare setback in a 1-1 draw with Southampton but they still dominated that affair, winning the shot count 20-7 and seeing 75 per cent of the ball.

And that was the only one of their previous ten matches which they failed to win.

In short, Pep Guardiola's men are in top form and, fresh from a 4-1 spanking of Championship highflyers Fulham in the FA Cup, it is hard to envisage anything but a comfortable victory for the champions against the Bees.

In their maiden Premier League season, Thomas Frank's men have actually had an okay record against the bigger clubs, claiming the scalps of Arsenal and an impressive West Ham side earlier in the season and holding Liverpool to a draw in September.

But their best performances seemed to come in the early portion of the campaign with the newly-promoted factor having worn off with the club losing 11 of their last 16 league assignments.

They did manage to limit City to a 1-0 win in their final match of 2021 but Guardiola's men have moved through the gears since then and punters should consider a high-scoring win for the hosts.

Gabriel Jesus is Guardiola's only notable omission and a lack of absences recently has allowed the club to build cohesion and consistency.

And they have been especially sharp at the Etihad with the best home record in the division.

City have won nine of their 11 home matches in the league this term, firing 32 goals and conceding only six in the process, and their Premier League home fixtures have seen an average of 3.45 goals per game in 2021-22.

That points to a high-scoring game this week and City to win and over 3.5 goals could be the way to play it.

Brentford's poor defensive resolve has seen them slip closer to the relegation zone in the last couple of months with 38 goals shipped in their 23 matches.

The fact their goals against tally is more than eight greater than their expected goals against figure is also cause for concern, perhaps raising questions about their goalkeeping options and Frank's uncertainty about his first-choice shot-stopper.

The Bees will be looking over their shoulders in the battle against the drop and a visit to the Etihad this week is unlikely to help their cause.

Key stat

Five of City's last nine matches have featured over 3.5 goals.

Inside info

Manchester City

Penalty taker Raheem Sterling/Kevin De Bruyne
Free-kick wizardKevin De Bruyne
Set-piece aerial threatRuben Dias
Card magnetAymeric Laporte

Brentford

Penalty taker Ivan Toney
Free-kick wizard Sergi Canos
Set-piece aerial threat Pontus Jansson
Card magnet Christian Norgaard

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