Joe Casey: Analysing the race for a top-five spot in the Premier League

Premier League final-day TV matches

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace
Sky Sports Premier League

Manchester United vs Aston Villa
TNT Sports 1

Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Sky Sports Main Event

All Premier League matches kick-off 4pm Sunday

Who will finish in the top five?

While Liverpool may have wrapped up the Premier League title some time ago and the fate of the three relegated teams has looked likely since Christmas, the race for Champions League qualification is set to go right down to the wire. 

There are five teams battling it out for the three remaining spots in Europe’s premier competition and with qualification estimated to be worth at least £70 million, the stakes could hardly be higher.

Premier League top-five finish odds

Here are bet365's latest odds to finish in the top five:

Odds correct at time of publish

Manchester City

Points 68, Goal difference +26 

Manchester City may have had the most disappointing season in their recent history, going trophyless for the first time since 2016-17 after their FA Cup final defeat to Crystal Palace, but they are in pole position for a Champions League spot.  

A 3-1 win over Bournemouth in midweek means that they need just a point against Fulham on Saturday to confirm a top-five finish. 

Newcastle

Points 66, Goal difference +22

Newcastle have given themselves a good chance of qualifying for the Champions League for the second time in three seasons but every result in the race last weekend went against them, most notably their 1-0 defeat to Arsenal.

Eddie Howe’s side will wrap up a top-five position with a win over Everton on the final day and could squeeze through with a draw, although they would need Aston Villa to fail to beat Manchester United and Nottingham Forest and Chelsea not to draw.    

Chelsea

Points 66, Goal difference +20

Chelsea were touted by some as possible title winners earlier in the season but now face a nervy final game of the season against fellow contenders Nottingham Forest to wrap up a top-five spot. The Blues will qualify with a win and could sneak through with a draw if Newcastle lose against Everton or Aston Villa fail to beat Manchester United. 

A defeat would see them fall to sixth or lower as Nuno Espirito Santo’s men would overtake them.

Aston Villa

Points 66, Goal difference +9

A run of eight wins from their last nine Premier League games has given Aston Villa a chance of returning to the Champions League after they reached the quarter-finals this term.

While there is a mathematical chance that Unai Emery’s men could sneak a top-five spot with a draw, it is highly unlikely.

Their poor goal difference in relation to their rivals remains a hindrance to their prospects. They need a victory against the Red Devils and have to hope that either Newcastle or Chelsea don’t win. A Manchester City defeat against Fulham would also give them a lifeline if the other pair don’t oblige.

Nottingham Forest

Points 65, Goal difference +13

Nottingham Forest have punched well above their weight this season but given the fact that they were in the top five from early December until late April, to be on the outside looking in now feels like a disappointment.

The Tricky Trees need to beat Chelsea and hope that either Aston Villa or Newcastle fail to win to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 1980-81.

Recommended Offer

4/5

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets

NEW CUSTOMER OFFER

• Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG)

CLAIM OFFER

18+ T&Cs apply

Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required.

Joe Casey's verdict

Aside from Nottingham Forest and Chelsea, the other three teams battling it out for the top five are all trading at odds-on to win their final games so the likelihood is that the match at the City Ground will be the critical clash.

A point would be enough for Manchester City against Fulham and they have avoided defeat in their last 19 meetings with the Cottagers so should be able to get the job done.

Likewise, Newcastle have won nine of their last 11 home games in the Premier League and face an Everton side who may have left their race behind in their emotional Goodison Park farewell last weekend. 

Aston Villa look to have a solid chance of getting the better of a Manchester United team who will have been left reeling by their Europa League final defeat to Tottenham on Wednesday.

In the crucial clash at the City Ground, Chelsea are a short price to get the better of Nottingham Forest, but their away record against the top seven makes them hard to fancy.

Enzo Maresca’s side have lost all five road trips against the teams around them this season and are likely to have no central striker for this finale against after Nicolas Jackson was sent off against Newcastle.

The Blues made heavy weather of beating a dismal Manchester United team last time out and Forest pose a much bigger threat in front of their own fans.

The stakes could not be higher for Chelsea and whenever that has been the case this season, they have tended to fall short.

The Blues could leave the door open for Aston Villa to sneak into the top five and Unai Emery’s side look like the value selection to reach their target.

Best bet

Aston Villa top-five finish
2pts 6-5 general

Read more . . .

Football accumulator tips for Friday May 23: Back our acca at 7-1 with bet365

James Milton's football predictions: Anfield clash unlikely to be short on action 

James Milton: Six ante-post selections that tell the story of the 2024-25 Premier League 

Jamie Griffith: What can we learn about the EFL playoff finals from previous clashes?  

Europa League final reaction: Postecoglou 1-2 to stay at Spurs 

Click for free bets and betting offers from the Racing Post

Commercial notice: This article contains affiliate links. Offers are handpicked and come from operators our experts have first-hand experience of. Opening an account via one of these links will earn revenue for the Racing Post, which will be used to continue producing our award-winning coverage of horseracing and sports betting.