James Milton: Six ante-post selections that tell the story of the 2024-25 Premier League

The 2024-25 Premier League season reaches its conclusion on Sunday and we are reviewing the campaign through the prism of six ante-post selections.

These pre-season bets – not all of them successful – tell the tale of various sections of the top-flight table and may offer some early betting insight for next season.

Nottingham Forest to finish in the top six – 50-1

Every punter has their own approach to laying off but it could be a tough final day for anyone who hasn't hedged their bet on Forest to make the top six at 50-1.

Having finished one place above the relegation zone in 2023-24, the Tricky Trees kick off Sunday's home fixture against Chelsea in seventh spot, just one point behind fourth-placed Newcastle and seven clear of Brighton in eighth.

Forest were third in the table as recently as April 21, when they won 2-1 at Tottenham, but an unfortunate FA Cup semi-final defeat to Manchester City was followed by a loss to Brentford and costly draws with Crystal Palace and Leicester.

Last weekend's 2-1 win at West Ham – their tenth away victory of the season – kept alive their Champions League dream.

Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, Bournemouth and Palace have all had excellent spells of league form at times this season but Forest remain the highest-ranked of the Premier League's upwardly mobile 'middle-class'.

Elliot Anderson and Nikola Milenkovic proved to be inspired signings, striker Chris Wood has scored 20 league goals and keeper Matz Sels is level with Arsenal's David Raya in the race for the Golden Glove.

Centre-back Murillo and attacking stars Morgan Gibbs-White, Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi have also played key roles in Forest's success and Nuno Espirito Santo's men are guaranteed at least a Conference League playoff spot.

However, more smart recruitment and more tactical flexibility will be required if Forest are to avoid a significant drop-off in 2025-26.

Nuno's rigid defensive gameplan has helped them claim seven 1-0 victories, including wins away to Liverpool and at home to Manchester City, but their 58 goals have come from an xG of just 44.3 according to fbref.com.  

Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton to be relegated – 5-1

This bet was tipped by Jack Ogalbe in the Racing Post's Big Kick-Off and, once Wolves got their act together under Vitor Pereira, it was never really in doubt.

For the second season running, the three promoted clubs have all been relegated and the gulf between the bottom three and the rest of the division is concerning.

Last term 18th-placed Luton finished six points behind 17th-placed Forest, who had a four-point deduction; the corresponding gap between Leicester and Tottenham this season is 13 points. 

The bottom three have negative goal differences of 45, 44 and 59 while Southampton, 11-8 for the drop at the start of the season, have scraped together just 12 points from 37 games.

The bar is low but next season's promoted clubs should be more competitive. Leeds and Burnley earned 100 points in the Championship while Sheffield United and Sunderland, who finished third and fourth, meet in Saturday's playoff final.

There were excuses for this season's promoted clubs. Leicester lost Championship-winning manager Enzo Maresca and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, their Player of the Year, to Chelsea and Ipswich were playing League One football in 2022-23.

Southampton's commitment to playing out from the back verged on self-sabotage and Burnley, who conceded only 16 goals in 46 Championship matches, should be far more pragmatic on their return to the top flight.

Mohamed Salah to win the Golden Boot – 10-1

Liverpool were 15-2 to depose 6-4 champions Manchester City in the ante-post title betting and there was a similar shape to the Golden Boot market.

Erling Haaland, who had won the Boot with 36 and 27 goals in his first two Premier League campaigns, was 8-11 to complete the hat-trick and Mohamed Salah was a distant second in the betting at 10-1.

However, the Liverpool icon has amassed 28 goals and 18 assists in 37 league starts, scoring a goal every 117 minutes compared with Haaland's strike-rate of 126 minutes.

While Salah has converted all nine of his league penalties, Haaland was criticised for allowing Omar Marmoush to take, and miss, a spot-kick in last weekend's FA Cup final defeat to Palace.

Next season's Golden Boot market should be interesting. Haaland still sets the standard and Liverpool will hope their decision to hand a new contract to Salah, who turns 33 next month, does not backfire.

The Egyptian has scored only three goals in his last ten league starts, two of them against bottom club Southampton, although three of those games came after the Reds had sealed the title.

Alexander Isak's 23 goals have come at a rate of one every 116 minutes, better than Salah and Haaland, and he will be a big runner for the Boot next term.

What colour silks will Isak be wearing, though? Bet365 make him 1-4 to be at Newcastle after the summer transfer window although 4-1 Liverpool and 7-1 Arsenal are reportedly sniffing around the Swedish striker.

And what price Marmoush? Haaland's teammate, and Salah's fellow Egypt international, bounced back from his penalty miss in the cup final with a brilliant strike against Bournemouth on Tuesday, taking his tally to 22 goals in 30 league starts for Eintracht Frankfurt and City this season. 

Arsenal to win the Premier League without Manchester City – 4-5

The 2024-25 ante-post markets suggested that Arsenal were poised to pick up the pieces if Manchester City stumbled in pursuit of their seventh title in eight seasons.

Barring some extraordinary final-day results, the Gunners will finish above City, who pipped them in exciting title races in 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Frustratingly, though, Arsenal are set to be runners-up for a third season in a row and they are third-favourites to win the league next term.

It is tight at the top of the Premier League market as 2-1 Liverpool shade 9-4 City and 5-2 Arsenal for favouritism.

But the season ends with a familiar narrative for Gunners fans: Mikel Arteta is just one or two players away from turning Arsenal into champions.

Sporting striker Viktor Gyokeres and Athletic Bilbao winger Nico Williams are two potential attacking signings to galvanise a side who average 1.81 goals per game this season, down from 2.32 and 2.39 in their last two campaigns.

Arsenal's run to the Champions League semi-finals, Declan Rice's imperious midfield performances and the emergence of youngsters Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri are huge positives for Arteta.

But his men failed to take advantage of City's annus horribilis and they must improve their disciplinary record and attacking output if they are to avoid another near miss in 2025-26.  

Manchester United to finish in the bottom half – 8-1

Tottenham to finish in the bottom half – 8-1

Tottenham beat Manchester United 1-0 in Wednesday's Europa League final to earn a place in next season's Champions League.

In the Premier League, though, these long-time members of the 'big six' are languishing in 16th and 17th places.

Both had been 2-1 to finish in the top four but punters who took the 8-1 about a bottom-half finish for either United or Spurs have been sitting pretty for much of the season.

The Red Devils are a point above Tottenham but their stats are arguably more damning than the Lilywhites' record.

Five of United's ten league wins, and 16 of their 42 goals, came against the three relegated clubs and seven of their nine home defeats were by at least a two-goal margin.

Spurs have suffered 21 league defeats, losing 13 of their 15 games against the top eight, and returning to the top half – never mind the top four or five – will not be easy for either club.

Prioritising the Europa League clearly affected their league form but United are 32 points behind injury-hit Arsenal, who reached the Champions League semis, and 27 adrift of Conference League finalists Chelsea. 

United and Tottenham have been badly hampered by injuries but should their results have been this bad? Despite Wednesday's triumph, Ange Postecoglou's future at Spurs is uncertain.

And Ruben Amorim's average of 0.92 points per game since his arrival in November is woeful compared with some other mid-season appointments. Everton's David Moyes has picked up 1.56 points per game and Pereira has won ten of his 21 league matches at Wolves.

The Europa League finalists must haul themselves out of the mire next season and their recovery mission is one of many intriguing storylines in the 2025-26 Premier League.

Read more . . .

Football accumulator tips for Friday May 23: Back our acca at 7-1 with bet365

James Milton's football predictions: Anfield clash unlikely to be short on action 

Joe Casey: Analysing the race for a top-five spot in the Premier League 

Jamie Griffith: What can we learn about the EFL playoff finals from previous clashes? 

Europa League final reaction: Postecoglou 1-2 to stay at Spurs 

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