Expert Premier League predictions and free football tips from Mark Langdon

Football betting tips & analysis from Racing Post's Mark Langdon.

Best bets

Leicester +1 Asian handicap
1pt 9-10 bet365

Southampton
1pt 11-10 general

Forgive me father, for I have sinned.

Confirmation bias is the black mamba of the betting world.

It's dangerous and can poison the mind but I have been telling anyone that will listen - and given the lockdown rules it has often been a one-way conversation with the disinterested wife - but the European Championship this summer is ripe for a massive upset and the recent World Cup qualifiers just ramped up my enthusiasm for the outsiders.

The Euros produce shocks anyway - Denmark getting off the beach in 1992, Czechs in the final in 1996, Greece! Even Portugal were unfancied despite the presence of Cristiano Ronaldo in 2016 and in this pandemic-influenced campaign it is likely to be the survival of the fittest rather than a summer of football fun.

Favourites England did claim maximum points but needed a penalty and set-piece to overcome a Robert Lewandowski-less Poland. France, who should be favourites, drew with Ukraine and had two shots on target in a 1-0 win over Bosnia.

Belgium battered Belarus but failed to beat Czech Republic in a game where the Red Devils had fewer shots and shots on target. Germany lost at home to North Macedonia in another low blow for Jogi Loew.

Spain needed a last-minute long-distance strike to beat Georgia and Portugal made heavy work of overcoming Azerbaijan and Luxembourg, while Netherlands were three down after 46 minutes in Turkey.

Italy head into the tournament unbeaten in 25 matches and with arguably the best coach in the competition in Roberto Mancini. But their Euros qualifying campaign was soft and beating Northern Ireland, Bulgaria and Lithuania over the past fortnight still leaves doubts.

Given that the 12-1 Azzurri are the same price as Netherlands and bigger than Portugal, Germany, Belgium, England and France, a case could definitely be made for Mancini's men.

However, 40-1 Denmark, who will be the official tournament dark horses, and 100-1 Switzerland are the two for my money.

I backed Denmark at the World Cup, when they were beaten on penalties by runners-up Croatia, and their 4-0 win in Austria showed they remain on the up.

The club teams of Denmark's starting 11 reads Leicester; Valencia, Milan, Chelsea, Atalanta; Inter, Tottenham, Dortmund; Leipzig, Copenhagen and Barcelona.

Meanwhile, Switzerland drew with German and Spain in the Nations League and their most important player, Xherdan Shaqiri, barely plays for Liverpool so will be one of the few who is fresh for the Euros.

Taking on the fancied Euro runners comes easier than opposing Manchester City but just after an international break against counter-attacking kings in Leicester and immediately before a huge Champions League game could be the perfect timing.

City have won just four games against the top seven this season and Leicester have already beaten them this term. The third-placed Foxes have also knocked Manchester United out of the FA Cup and taken notable league scalps in Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham.

Southampton welcome back Danny Ings and Theo Walcott and are getting closer to full strength. Take them to see off Burnley.

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