Chelsea v Brighton predictions: Goals may be at a premium at Stamford Bridge

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Chelsea v Brighton & Hove Albion in the Premier League on Wednesday.

Where to watch

Amazon Prime, 7.30pm, Wednesday

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals
1pt 20-21 BoyleSports

Team news

Chelsea
N'Golo Kante (knee) and Thiago Silva (hamstring) are out. Kai Havertz could return after illness but Ben Chilwell remains sidelined.

Brighton
Forward Leandro Trossard faces a late test on a hamstring injury. Yves Bissouma returns from a ban but Josh Veltman is doubtful.

Match preview

Chelsea fans may have spent some time over Christmas contemplating just what has gone wrong lately as they have slipped behind in the Premier League title race.

Results suggest the answer is not a lot - Thomas Tuchel's team have lost just one of their last 13 league games - but there are issues below the surface and that doesn't even take into account Manchester City's relentless winning run.

The Blues lost to West Ham at the beginning of the month, but perhaps of greater concern to their supporters will be home draws against Burnley and Everton.

And the Blues camp doesn’t appear to be the happiest place right now with Tuchel criticising the festive schedule and the decision to not temporarily pause the season due to rising Covid-19 cases.

He has yet to call back any of the 19 outfield players Chelsea have playing elsewhere on loan to ease his predicament, but it seems likely he will unleash Romelu Lukaku when Brighton head to Stamford Bridge on Wednesday.

Lukaku has been eased back into action but seems a perfect fit for a team who cannot rely on Jorginho penalties for too much longer, with the Italian netting two key spot-kicks in recent wins over Leeds and Aston Villa.

A transfer fee of £97.5m is a lot to pay for someone who has been used as an impact substitute lately, but there were signs at Villa Park on Sunday that he is ready to take a leading role again after he scored and won the Blues’ second penalty in the closing stages.

If Chelsea can be more direct then Lukaku could make a telling difference, but they have scored just three goals from open play in their last four home league games and there should be some value in backing under 2.5 goals in the clash with the Seagulls.

Graham Potter's side should be content with a mild-table berth at the halfway stage and while they ended a 11-match winless run with a 2-0 win over Brentford on Sunday, eight of those games were draws.

The only away defeat they have suffered was a 2-0 loss at Villa when they conceded two goals in the last five minutes, so they are capable of holding firm and may relish the physical battle that Lukaku's presence would ensure.

The Seagulls' victory over the Bees was their seventh successive league match that failed to produce three goals and there is scope for this clash following that trend.

Key stat

Six of Brighton's last seven Premier League away games have featured fewer than three goals.

Inside info

Chelsea

Penalty taker Jorginho
Free-kick wizard Marcos Alonso/Mason Mount
Set-piece aerial threat Andreas Christensen
Card magnet Reece James

Brighton

Penalty taker Neal Maupay/Leandro Trossard
Free-kick wizardPascal Gross
Set-piece aerial threatShane Duffy
Card magnetAdam Lallana

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