Best Burnley v Aston Villa predictions and free football tips: tight game likely

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Burnley v Aston Villa in the Premier League on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 2, 6pm Wednesday

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals
2pts 19-20 Betfair
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Team news

Burnley
Defender Charlie Taylor looks set to miss out. Robbie Brady, Josh Brownhill and Ashley Barnes face late fitness tests but are all expected to be involved.

Aston Villa
Manager Dean Smith returns to the dugout after serving a touchline ban and midfielder John McGinn is available again after suspension. Kortney Hause and Wesley remain sidelined.

Match preview

Burnley and Aston Villa played out a goalless draw in December and two of the Premier League’s most resilient defences should ensure their tussle at Turf Moor is another low-scoring encounter.

Only Manchester City’s Ederson has kept more clean sheets than Villa shot-stopper Emiliano Martinez (nine in 17 league games) this season, while Claret number one Nick Pope has enjoyed seven shutouts from his 17 starts.

Dean Smith’s men are odds-on to make up for last month’s bore-draw at Villa Park and they are sure to have their supporters considering they dominated the shot stats 27-6 on that occasion.

But Burnley, buoyed by last Thursday’s shock 1-0 win against champions Liverpool at Anfield, have mastered the art of frustrating their opponents and what they lack in attacking quality they make up for in defensive grit and determination.

The Clarets are the Premier League’s joint-lowest scorers with just ten goals across their 18 games, but only seven teams have conceded fewer than their 22-goal total - Villa among them.

The visitors, armed with the super service of Jack Grealish, have considerably greater firepower than Burnley and Saturday’s 2-0 home win over Newcastle showed no ill-effects from a recent layoff with Covid-19.

However, more patience may be required to unlock Burnley’s disciplined defence and backing the game to feature two or fewer goals is far more appealing than victory for Villa, who are set for their third fixture in the space of just seven days.

There has been just one goal in each of Burnley’s last five league matches, and just one of their last nine top-flight fixtures rewarded over 2.5 backers.

Key stat

Burnley’s eight home league matches have featured just 13 goals - an average of 1.6 per game.

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