Aston Villa v Man City predictions: Expect action from the off at Villa Park

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Aston Villa v Manchester City in the Premier League on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Premier League, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Over 1.5 first-half goals
1pt 27-20 Coral

Team news

Aston Villa
Diego Carlos is sidelined. New signing Leander Dendoncker is a doubt due to a throat infection.

Man City
Manuel Akanji could be involved with Aymeric Laporte out. Nathan Ake and Jack Grealish should be involved, Kalvin Phillips is a doubt.

Match preview

Steven Gerrard is feeling the heat after a rotten start to the season but he can expect no mercy from Pep Guardiola's free-scoring champions.

Gerrard has got sections of the Villa Park faithful on his back with a disappointing end to last season being mirrored by a pretty poor start to this one.

They start the weekend in the bottom three having lost four out of five in the league and ought to be fearing the worst on Saturday night.

Villa haven't kept a clean sheet in 11 matches in all competitions and it would be astonishing if that didn't read 12 come the final whistle, with City making it ten wins in a row against the West Midlands outfit.

Guardiola is likely to tweak his side with just three days between this assignment and their Champions League opener in steamy Sevilla. It's possible, for example, that he could start Erling Haaland on the bench having said right from the off that he will work the young Norwegian sensibly.

And Villa would love to come up against a Haaland-less City given the big striker is fresh off back-to-back hat-tricks and has scored five more goals on his own than Villa have as a team.

Julian Alvarez would be the obvious replacement, although scarily Guardiola paired them in tandem on Wednesday and they combined for five of City's six in their drubbing of Forest.

The crazy thing is that City actually haven't been foot perfect so far. They were fairly workmanlike seeing off a toothless West Ham in their opener and a rout of Bournemouth proved nothing.

They were then given a real test by Newcastle – and drew – and another one for 45 minutes by Crystal Palace. Forest, let's be honest, were unlikely to hold them up.

So it's far from flawless – it's just that when they do get it right, or when their buttons are pushed, for example falling two behind to both Newcastle and Palace, they are utterly irresistible and it's questionable if Villa have the self-belief or gameplan to be able to halt them.

Villa's 2-1 defeat at Arsenal on Wednesday wasn't, on the face it, the worst result in the world. But the reality is they were second best by some distance for most of the match and that isn't a one-off.

The case for axing Gerrard looks a tad thin given a busy transfer window that he ought to be handed the chance to benefit from.

And nor would judging him on this match make much sense. Villa's subsequent four matches are against Leicester, Southampton, Leeds and Forest, games that may just define whether the new sack race favourite can defy the odds.

One bet that the stats stand up is over 1.5 first-half goals – there have been 12 first-half goals in City's five matches to date and the champions are invariably at it from the off.

Key stat

Manchester City have scored at least two goals in each of their last 14 league games.

Inside info

Aston Villa

Penalty taker Ollie Watkins/Danny Ings
Assist ace Emi Buendia
Set-piece aerial threat Jan Bednarek/Ollie Watkins
Card magnet John McGinn

Man City

Penalty taker Erling Haaland
Assist ace Kevin De Bruyne
Set-piece aerial threat Erling Haaland
Card magnet Joao Cancelo

CLICK HERE TO ENTER

Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets

Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Minimum odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude bet credits stake. Time limits/T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport