Aston Villa v Everton predictions: Villans may have the edge in cagey contest

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Aston Villa v Everton in the Premier League on Saturday.

Where to watch

BT Sport 1, 12.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Aston Villa & under 3.5 goals
1pt 11-8 BoyleSports

Team news

Aston Villa
Tyrone Mings is available after a groin injury but Kortney Hause is out.

Everton
Ben Godfrey and Yerry Mina picked up knocks last week and are out. Salomon Rondon is available after a ban. Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Andros Townsend are still sidelined but Seamus Coleman should return.

Match preview

Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard spent their playing careers fending off questions over who was the better midfielder, and scrutiny of them hasn't gone away.

Now the questions are over which of them can cut it as a top-flight boss as they prepare to go head to head in the Premier League for the first time as managers.

Their records are remarkably similar – Gerrard boasts a 35 per cent win rate at Villa, Lampard's is 36 per cent at Everton – and each has had to reflect on opening-weekend defeats, losses which only serve to cloud the picture ahead of a bet.

Ten days ago you'd probably have fancied Villa, with few questions asked.

Everton's away record is terrible – they have lost 13 of their last 17 league road trips, winning just one – and they were predictably toothless minus anything resembling a strike force as they lost 1-0 at home to Chelsea last weekend. They were gutsy but Chelsea were poor and the Toffees couldn't make any inroads.

But then Villa, too, threw in a shocker at Bournemouth, going down 2-0 with barely a whimper, inviting any amount of questions for Gerrard over selection, formation, tactics and, quite simply, inspiration. They were terrible.

Having a bet based on one-match form is folly although Villa weren't exactly great last year, either.

So what to make of this showdown at Villa Park? The hosts look short enough at odds-on given how well staffed and organised Everton's defence will be, a rearguard missing two of last week's starters but bolstered by Conor Coady's arrival from Wolves.

Everton are less inviting even at 4-1 with Salomon Rondon – last Premier League goal before Christmas – pencilled in to lead the line. Winger Alex Iwobi was drafted into centre midfield last week and defensively they are already being reshuffled because of injuries. They look a mess.

Villa are on a run of just two wins in their last 12 in the league – the successes against Norwich and Burnley who would both be relegated – and one home win in six.

Philippe Coutinho and Jacob Ramsey weren't alone in having shockers at the Vitality Stadium, there was precious little creativity and not a lot more energy.

At Villa Park the crowd can turn if their team get off to a slow start, but they can be a useful weapon if Stevie G's men get in front against a decimated Everton side.

That's probably the key. Do Villa score early, because if they do they probably win given the lack of much coming back offensively from the Toffees?

The original hunch was Villa so they remain the preference although there's more value backing them at 11-8 in a match featuring three goals or fewer.

Key stat

Salomon Rondon played 782 minutes of Premier League football last season – and scored one goal.

Inside info

Aston Villa

Penalty taker Ollie Watkins
Assist kings Emi Buendia, Philippe Coutinho
Set-piece threat Ollie Watkins
Card magnet John McGinn

Everton

Penalty taker Demarai Gray
Assist kings Demarai Gray, Abdoulaye Doucoure
Set-piece threat James Tarkowski
Card magnet Mason Holgate

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