Aston Villa v Chelsea predictions: Side with Blues in a low-scoring contest

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Aston Villa v Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Premier League, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Chelsea to win & under 3.5 goals
1pt 7-5 Betfair

Team news

Aston Villa
Leon Bailey should be fit. Diego Carlos and Boubacar Kamara are long-term crocks while Lucas Digne and Ludwig Augustinsson are unlikely to be fit.

Chelsea
Wesley Fofana, N'Golo Kante and Reece James are all injured.

Match preview

Unhappy Villa fans calling for the head of Steven Gerrard may be shouting louder than usual as Chelsea look set to pile on more gloom.

The knives are out for Gerrard after Villa have recorded just two wins in the league this season and have the second-lowest goals haul.

Indeed, they've won only four times since March, all against bottom-half sides.

Chelsea are anything but a bottom-half outfit and, after a sticky spell, are beginning to resemble a top-four side now that Graham Potter has got a tune out of them.

Potter have gone five matches without defeat since replacing Thomas Tuchel and has won each of the last four.

Chelsea are odds-on, a price difficult to dispute. If you fancy the Blues but also fancy something a bit riskier for greater potential returns, try the visitors and under 3.5 goals at 7-5.

The case for fewer than four goals looks, statistically at least, pretty sound. Just one of Villa's nine league games and just one of Chelsea's eight have produced over 3.5 – indeed, Villa's matches are averaging a mere two goals a time.

And the case for Chelsea is every bit as compelling especially as there appears to be a new sense of direction under Potter, maybe a better spirit in the camp.

He's not afraid to rotate his team and he's not afraid to try different formations but the evidence – and admittedly it's still early in his reign – is that he has something of a magic touch.

It wasn't the easiest of starts to his tenure – they were held at home by Salzburg and not great in sneaking a 2-1 win at Palace – but three straight wins to nil since then, two against Milan, are measurable signs of progress.

And progress is very much lacking at Villa Park. The Villans finished 14th last season, a campaign which tailed off badly, and they have not picked up well. Too many players are under-performing or producing only fitfully and therefore Gerrard is struggling to have much faith in John McGinn, Philippe Coutinho, Ollie Watkins and one or two others.

And seven goals in nine games says a lot. Only Wolves have bagged fewer. They are impotent. Expected goals are low and whether Gerrard goes one or two up top, the outcomes rarely vary.

They are, it has to be said, unbeaten in four, although three were draws and the last two of those – against Leeds and Nottingham Forest – were not good watches.

Key stat

Six of Villa's nine games this season have produced two goals or fewer.

Inside info

Aston Villa

Penalty taker Ollie Watkins
Assist ace Ollie Watkins
Set-piece aerial threat Tyrone Mings
Card magnet Jacob Ramsey

Chelsea

Penalty taker Jorginho
Assist ace Mason Mount
Set-piece aerial threat Kalidou Koulibaly
Card magnet Kai Havertz

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