Newcastle v Southampton predictions: Rock-solid hosts should ease into final

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football & Main Event, 8pm Tuesday

Best bets

Newcastle to win 2-0
1pt 5-1 general

Joelinton to be first goalscorer
1pt 8-1 BoyleSports

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Team news

Newcastle
Jonjo Shelvey, Emil Krafth and Matt Targett are likely to be the Magpies' only injury absentees.

Southampton
Moussa Djenepo is a doubt with concussion while Juan Larios, Tino Livramento and Alex McCarthy are sidelined. Duje Carleta-Car, sent off in the first leg, served his suspension in the FA Cup and is available, along with new signing James Bree.

Match preview

Southampton landed a 14-1 upset by beating Manchester City in the EFL Cup quarter-finals and they are the same price to qualify from their semi-final tie against Newcastle.

The Magpies, hunting a first piece of domestic silverware since 1955, won 1-0 in the first leg at St Mary's and bookmakers do not fancy Saints' chances of overturning that narrow deficit against an awesome Newcastle defence.

The first leg was a fairly even contest with three shots on target apiece and, shortly after Newcastle's Joelinton broke the deadlock in the 73rd minute,   Southampton had the ball in the net thanks to Adam Armstrong.

That effort was ruled out for handball, leaving Nathan Jones's side with a mountain to climb on their long trip north and it is hard to see the Premier League's bottom club denying Eddie Howe's men a place in the final at Wembley.

Saints have achieved what plenty of top-flight clubs have failed to by scoring against Newcastle this season but Romain Perraud's goal came in the 89th minute of November's 4-1 home defeat in the league.

Since then, the Magpies' rearguard, with outstanding goalkeeper Nick Pope as the last line of defence, have kept 13 clean sheets in 15 league and cup meetings with Premier League opponents and the only stain on their record was a 2-1 FA Cup defeat at League One Sheffield Wednesday. 

Few teams are better qualified to protect a 1-0 first-leg lead than Newcastle, who have conceded just 11 goals in 20 league matches this season – the best record in the top flight – and the 2-0 correct score appeals as Southampton will have to press forward and leave space at the back as they chase the tie.

Centre-forward Callum Wilson has gone nine games without a goal and Sweden striker Alexander Isak is still lacking sharpness after an injury-disrupted start to his career at St James' Park so it could pay to back Joelinton to open the scoring, as he did at St Mary's.

The Brazilian is not the most reliable finisher, missing a great chance before finding the net in the first leg, but he has been playing in a more advanced role recently and is capable of troubling lower-ranked opponents.

He had three shots in Newcastle's home league games against Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, four against Aston Villa and Leeds, and five in the EFL Cup quarter-final win at Leicester in which he scored the Magpies' third goal.

Key stat

Newcastle have kept 13 clean sheets in their last 15 league and cup matches against Premier League teams.

Probable teams

Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Willock, S Longstaff, Guimaraes; Almiron, Wilson, Joelinton
Subs: Isak, Lascelles, Lewis, Manquillo, Murphy, Saint-Maximin, Ritchie 

Southampton (4-2-3-1): Bazunu; Walker-Peters, Lyanco, Caleta-Car, Salisu; Alcaraz, Diallo; Edozie, Ward-Prowse, Orsic; Mara
Subs: Perraud, Maitland-Niles, Bella-Kotchap, A Armstrong, Lavia, Adams, Elyounoussi

Inside info

Newcastle

Penalty taker Callum Wilson
Assist ace Kieran Trippier
Set-piece aerial threat Fabian Schar
Card magnet Joelinton

Southampton

Penalty taker James Ward-Prowse
Assist ace James Ward-Prowse
Set-piece aerial threat Mohammed Salisu
Card magnet Mohammed Salisu

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