Kevin Pullein: Saturday football betting advice, free tip & thought for the week

Best bet

Villarreal +1 Asian handicap cards
1pt 1.9 bet365

Getafe have picked up a lot of cards, Villarreal have not. So it is easy to understand bet365’s Asian handicap cards market for tomorrow’s La Liga game between the teams. But it may go too far.

Back Villarreal +1 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.9 – equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Villarreal’s total is greater than or equal to Getafe’s the bet will win, if it is one lower stakes will be refunded, and if it is anything else the bet will lose.

Getafe have collected a lot of cards – an average of 3.6 per game at home since the start of last season. Villarreal have not accumulated a lot of cards – an average of just 2.0 per game away from home since the start of last season.

If those numbers are a reliable guide to what we should anticipate tomorrow bet365’s Villarreal price is not too big and anyone who takes it deserves to lose. And those numbers might be a reliable guide. But there is another possibility.

What is interesting is that Getafe’s opponents have also received lots of cards. More than they usually do. Almost as many as Getafe, in fact. And Villarreal’s opponents have received fewer cards than they usually do, almost as few as Villarreal.

Getafe have provoked worse-than-usual behaviour in their opponents. Villarreal have inspired better-than-usual behaviour in their opponents. What will happen when they play each other? Will Villarreal lose some of their composure? Will Getafe regain some of theirs? Or a bit of both? It is possible that the prospect of Villarreal getting as many or more cards than Getafe is better than bet365 estimate.

Anyone who had been able to back Getafe’s visitors +1 Asian handicap cards since the start of last season would have won 11 times, lost seven times and got their stake back five times. Anyone who had been able to back Villarreal +1 Asian handicap cards away from home since the start of last season would have won 11 times, lost three times and got their stake back eight times.

Thought for the week

A lot could change tomorrow in the Premier League. Manchester City play at home to Liverpool.

If City win they will be just two points behind Liverpool with a game in hand, which is at home to Aston Villa. If they draw the gap will stay at five points. And if they lose they will be a huge eight points behind.

A lot could change in perceptions of chances of winning the title. And rightly so. Chances of winning the title are affected by what has happened so far. It alters what has to be done in the rest of the season.

A lot could change, too, in assessments of how good the teams are. And any shift there could go too far. City could be seen as back to their best or a spent force. Each of those very different judgements is possible. And they may be almost equally likely.

Bookmakers say City have roughly the same chance of winning as they have of not winning. The odds are probably not far off.

Forming a conclusion before the match has been played might seem weird, but it could be the best thing to do. Think of City as somewhere between being back to their best and being a spent force. And keep thinking that way no matter what everybody else is saying tomorrow night.